Advancing Collective Decision-Making Theory with Integrated Agent-Based Modeling and Ethnographic Data Analysis: An Example in Ecological Restoration

Abstract

Ecological restoration actions generally result from collective decision-making processes and can involve diverse, at times contentious, views. As such, it is critical to understand these processes and the factors that might influence the resolution of diverse perspectives into a set of coordinated actions. This paper describes the adaptation and calibration of a stylized collective decision-making agent-based model using ethnographic data, to advance theory on how decisions emerge in the context of ecological restoration in the Chicago Wilderness. The prototypical model provided structure and organization of the empirical data of two Chicago Wilderness member groups and revealed organizational structures, patterns of interactions via formal and informal meetings, and parameter values for the various mechanisms. The organization of the data allowed us to identify where our original model mechanisms required adaptation. After model modifications were completed, baseline scenarios were contrasted with observations for final parameter calibration and to elaborate explanations of the study cases. This exercise allowed us to identify the components and mechanisms in the system to which the outputs are most sensitive. We constructed relevant hypothetical scenarios around these critical components, and found that key liaisons, agents with high interaction frequencies and high mutual respect values are useful in promoting efficient decision processes, but are limited in their ability to change the collective position with respect to a restoration practice. Simulations suggest that final collective position can be changed when there is a more equitable distribution of agents across groups, or the key liaison is very persuasive (i.e. interacts frequently and is highly respected) but is non-reciprocal (i.e. does not respect others highly). Our work advances our understanding of key mechanisms influencing collective decision processes and illustrates the value of agent-based modeling and its integration with ethnographic data analysis to advance the theory of collective decision making.

People Don't Talk in Institutional Statements: A Methodological Case Study of the Institutional Analysis and Development Framework

“…Our assessment of the institutional statements was useful in refining agent‐based models of reaching consensus (Watkins et al, ; Zellner et al, ), and this points to a next step for application of the IAD and ADICO: apply it to addressing problems in real time. Pre/post interventional studies based on an in‐depth understanding of institutional statements‐in‐use in a given social‐ecological system could go a long way to help understand both the usefulness the ADICO grammar, and also provide solutions for problems faced in the real world.…”

“…We were able to use the aggregation and information statements, and the patterns they highlighted, in our agent-based models. With these models, we were able to test how inserting an institutional statement (or suite of related statements) into a different system might affect the decision-making process in this other group (Watkins, Massey, Brooks, Ross, & Zellner, 2013;Zellner et al, 2014).…”

Untitled

“…In some organizations, these individuals are strong leaders, even referred to as benign dictators. In others, individuals have been brought in to the organization specifically to coordinate decision-making in the face of divergent opinions (Zellner et al, 2014). We found these individuals to play a critical role in restoration decision-making since often when there is disagreement, there is no established basis in the scientific literature on which to base decisions (e.g., regarding seeding practices).…”

“…Manager-led describes projects in which the landowner is dominant in decision-making and on-the-ground management; co-management describes projects in which there is a high degree of volunteer participation and autonomy in both decision-making and on-the-ground activities, and the landowner may or may not be active in decision-making and management; and finally, research-led describes projects in which scientific exploration is central to restoration activities. The RESTORE project investigators sought to describe, compare, and contrast these decision-making styles using a variety of analytic tools, including agent-based modeling (Watkins et al, 2013;Zellner et al, 2014), thematic content analysis (themes such as conflict, communication, emotions), and the extraction of rules, norms, and strategies, as framed in the institutional analysis and development literature (Ostrom, 2005).…”

Editorial – Agent-Based Modelling for Resilience

“…Within psychology and the social sciences, there are abundant theories which are sufficiently articulated to form the basis of a model of a social system, and it is sometimes possible to apply them to SES modelling (Hofstede, 2017;Jager et al, 2000). Conversely, designing and implementing models can assist theory development (Zellner et al, 2014).…”