A centrifugal compressor of a micro turbine generator system is investigated by the theoretical model and numerical analysis to explore the characteristics of the tip leakage vortex as the centrifugal compressor approaches stall. The numerical simulation results show the cross-sectional shape of the tip leakage vortex is elliptical, and its long and short axes are gradually stretched as the compressor approaches stall. Moreover, the vortex trajectory is inclined to the pressure side of the adjacent blade. In addition, the Kirchhoff elliptical vortex model is introduced to analyze the flow passage constriction effect, the passage vortex squeezing effect, and the leakage flow translation effect. Results show that there is no upper limit for the flow passage constriction effect on the tip leakage vortex. Furthermore, relative to the original vortex, the minimum constriction effect depends on the axis ratio of the elliptical tip leakage vortex. The passage vortex has an expansion effect on the tip leakage vortex rather than a squeezing effect, which is limited and also depends on the axis ratio of the ellipse. However, the effect magnitude of the leakage flow depends on the scales both of the long and short axes, which also have no upper limit.