Africa's urban adaptation transition under a 1.5° climate

Towards Risk-Sensitive and Transformative Urban Development in Sub Saharan Africa

“…Section 2 presents a common analytical framework to help identify blockages and opportunities for a transition towards a risk-sensitive and transformative urban development. This framework was initially proposed in Pelling et al [5] and is further developed and applied in this paper through detailed investigations of blockages and opportunities to transition based on synthesised empirical research undertaken in the four key cities under the Urban ARK programme since 2015. The framework is illustrated through each city in turn: Karonga, Ibadan, Niamey and Nairobi.…”

“…Hazard monitoring capabilities are often weak and emergent hazards (e.g., heat stress), as well as compound hazards, remain poorly understood in many cases. Considerable gaps remain in government agencies, civil society and policy leadership in terms of 'owning' specific hazards and related ameliorative interventions [5].…”

“…Ajibade et al [14] asked 'who are the dominant actors that can trigger a transition' and whether transition windows (e.g., political and institutional change) can be utilised to enhance equity and future risk reduction. In this paper, we show how opportunities for transition arise through several channels, notably through effective multi-level governance where organised civil society collaborates with the city government and other actors in networked arrangements [5]. The recent increase in citizen-led approaches for data collection, monitoring, recording of events and online data management is critical for advancing early warning on hazards, but often these initiatives remain limited to larger cities [2,5].…”

“…How can research work in partnership with practitioners and stakeholders at risk to support a transition towards a more integrated vision, process and practice of risk management? Figure 1 identifies three key blockages to this transition and three opportunities drawing from recent research under the Urban ARK programme in sSA [5]. The figure shows that transition is constrained by fragmented governance, donor priorities and inadequate monitoring of hazards, impacts and vulnerability.…”

“…In this context, there is an increasingly urgent need for squarely recognising and addressing the underlying vulnerabilities of urban populations and their root causes. Transitioning towards such sustainable urban pathways will require the strengthening of capacities and accountability of city authorities and broader governance systems, both formal and informal [5]. Complex relationships between risk (likelihood of future loss and damage) and vulnerability (propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected) and other elements of development and human well-being require detailed analysis and advanced understandings [6].…”