African climate change: 1900-2100

Abstract

This paper reviews observed and possible future (2000-2100) continentwide changes in temperature and rainfall for Africa. For the historic period we draw upon a new observed global climate data set which allows us to explore aspects of regional climate change related to diurnal temperature range and rainfall variability. The latter includes an investigation of regions where seasonal rainfall is sensitive to El Niño climate variability. This review of past climate change provides the context for our scenarios of future greenhouse gas-induced climate change in Africa. These scenarios draw upon the draft emissions scenarios prepared for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Third Assessment Report, a suite of recent global climate model experiments, and a simple climate model to link these 2 sets of analyses. We present a range of 4 climate futures for Africa, focusing on changes in both continental and regional seasonal-mean temperature and rainfall. Estimates of associated changes in global CO 2 concentration and global-mean sea-level change are also supplied. These scenarios draw upon some of the most recent climate modelling work. We also identify some fundamental limitations to knowledge with regard to future African climate. These include the often poor representation of El Niño climate variability in global climate models, and the absence in these models of any representation of regional changes in land cover and dust and biomass aerosol loadings. These omitted processes may well have important consequences for future African climates, especially at regional scales. We conclude by discussing the value of the sort of climate change scenarios presented here and how best they should be used in national and regional vulnerability and adaptation assessments.

Adaptation to Climate Change in Developing Countries

“…Precipitation is predicted to increase with 5-30 percent during the rainy season and decrease with 5-10 percent during dry months for year 2020 in Tanzania and especially the interior part of the country will experience temperature increases and longer dry periods (Hulme andothers 2001 andClark andothers 2003).…”

Beyond Territory and Scarcity: Exploring Conflicts over Natural Resource Management

“…Damage to livelihoods may also be accentuated on account of the necessary compression of agricultural activity within a short growing season. The major source of risk in dryland environments is inter-year and intra-seasonal variability in rainfall, especially in a context of long-term decline as experienced in the Sahel from the 1960s to the 1980s, which exceeded in magnitude any changes predicted in climate change scenarios (Hulme et al, 2001). A decline in average rainfall meant an increasing frequency of negative departures from the mean, and of agricultural drought in a region such as eastern Niger and northern Nigeria (Hess et al, 1995;Mortimore, 2000).…”

A Methodology for the Vulnerability Analysis of the Climate Change in the Oromia Region, Ethiopia

“…In the last century Ethiopia unfortunately registered many anomalies concerning precipitations distribution, that leads to frequent and intense periods of drought in many areas of the country. Several studies justify the precipitation variability of Horn of Africa with the phenomenon of Niño and Niña (ENSO-El Niño Southern Oscillation18) (Hulme et al 2001, Korecha 2006, Segele and Lamb 2005, Seleshi and Demarèe 1995. The main concern is the seasonal cycle of the rain (Segele andLamb 2005, Viste et al 2013), because anomalous rainy cycles may lead to huge damages to the agricultural production of the country, increasing the vulnerability of rural people which lives of subsistence (Sadoff 2008).…”