After the Midterm Ordeal: Election Results and Presidential Belief Systems

Abstract

<jats:p>The study of midterm elections can reveal an important influence on the beliefs of presidents. Employing constructs from the “operational code “literature regarding presidential foreign policy-making, we examine the impact of midterm election results upon presidential beliefs during two “normal” midterm elections: 1990 and 1994. We hypothesize that midterm elections encourage presidents to find the nature of the political universe more conflictual, to develop a lower locus of personal control over their environment, and to adopt more adversarial positions about their approach to personal goals. These effects should vary with the scale of the midterm setback. We find support for these hypotheses, usually with greater effects in the 1994 than 1990 case. Given the larger effects of the 1994 election upon the president, its status as a “normal” midterm election lies in question. Further research into other midterm cases is necessary to formulate a typology of midterm effects upon presidential beliefs.</jats:p>