Age-Dependent Extinction and the Neutral Theory of Biodiversity

Saulsbury, James; Parins‐Fukuchi, Caroline; Reitan, Trond; Wilson, Connor J.; Liow, Lee Hsiang

doi:10.1130/abs/2022am-380380

Cited by 3 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 12 publications

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“…Based on species birth-death processes, these models have been pivotal in shaping our understanding of species diversity patterns and ecological dynamics. Despite apparent species and individual differences, they propose that species are variations of a fundamental theme [91] in which species have the same probability of dying, reproducing and dispersing, as reflected by their birth and death rates. These theories assume a universal demographic symmetry (often called neutrality, meaning neutral with respect to fitness) at the macroecological and macroevolutionary scales, resonating with the power laws observed in nature that we discuss next [71,92].…”

Section: Towards a General Dynamical Scaling Theory To Assess The Res...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Scaling approaches and macroecology provide a foundation for assessing ecological resilience in the Anthropocene

Enquist,

Erwin,

Savage

et al. 2024

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

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In the Anthropocene, intensifying ecological disturbances pose significant challenges to our predictive capabilities for ecosystem responses. Macroecology—which focuses on emergent statistical patterns in ecological systems—unveils consistent regularities in the organization of biodiversity and ecosystems. These regularities appear in terms of abundance, body size, geographical range, species interaction networks, or the flux of matter and energy. This paper argues for moving beyond qualitative resilience metaphors, such as the ‘ball and cup’, towards a more quantitative macroecological framework. We suggest a conceptual and theoretical basis for ecological resilience that integrates macroecology with a stochastic diffusion approximation constrained by principles of biological symmetry. This approach provides an alternative novel framework for studying ecological resilience in the Anthropocene. We demonstrate how our framework can effectively quantify the impacts of major disturbances and their extensive ecological ramifications. We further show how biological scaling insights can help quantify the consequences of major disturbances, emphasizing their cascading ecological impacts. The nature of these impacts prompts a re-evaluation of our understanding of resilience. Emphasis on regularities of ecological assemblages can help illuminate resilience dynamics and offer a novel basis to predict and manage the impacts of disturbance in the Anthropocene more efficiently. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere’.

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Section: Towards a General Dynamical Scaling Theory To Assess The Res...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Scaling approaches and macroecology provide a foundation for assessing ecological resilience in the Anthropocene

Enquist,

Erwin,

Savage

et al. 2024

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

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“…Further details are available in the supporting information . All code and data required to replicate our results is available at https://github.com/jgsaulsbury/nt-surv ( 61 ).…”

Section: Data Materials and Software Availabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Age-dependent extinction and the neutral theory of biodiversity

Saulsbury,

Parins-Fukuchi,

Wilson

et al. 2023

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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Red Queen (RQ) theory states that adaptation does not protect species from extinction because their competitors are continually adapting alongside them. RQ was founded on the apparent independence of extinction risk and fossil taxon age, but analytical developments have since demonstrated that age-dependent extinction is widespread, usually most intense among young species. Here, we develop ecological neutral theory as a general framework for modeling fossil species survivorship under incomplete sampling. We show that it provides an excellent fit to a high-resolution dataset of species durations for Paleozoic zooplankton and more broadly can account for age-dependent extinction seen throughout the fossil record. Unlike widely used alternative models, the neutral model has parameters with biological meaning, thereby generating testable hypotheses on changes in ancient ecosystems. The success of this approach suggests reinterpretations of mass extinctions and of scaling in eco-evolutionary systems. Intense extinction among young species does not necessarily refute RQ or require a special explanation but can instead be parsimoniously explained by neutral dynamics operating across species regardless of age.

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“…1). The rationale behind the phenomenon of negative age-dependent extinction is typically attributed to population size and geographical range (area) dynamics (see also Saulsbury et al, 2023 for a mechanistic model). According to this explanation, newly formed species typically originate within a highly constrained geographical range and possess small population sizes (Vrba, E. S. & DeGusta, 2004;Rosenblum et al, 2012).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Como a delimitação de zonas adaptativas à partir de filogenia ou ecologia afeta a inferência de extinção dependente da idade?

Gonçalves Neto

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Esta dissertação não teria sido concluída com sucesso sem a ajuda e apoio essenciais de diversas pessoas ao longo desta jornada. Gostaria de começar expressando minha profunda gratidão ao meu orientador, Tiago Quental, por sua orientação, paciência e incentivo ao longo deste processo. Além disso, agradeço sinceramente aos membros do comitê de acompanhamento, Lee Hsiang Liow e Graham Slater, pelas valiosas contribuições que enriqueceram este estudo. Agradeço, também os membros do LabMeMe pelo ambiente estimulante que contribuiu significativamente para o meu desenvolvimento como cientista e para a conclusão deste trabalho. Também expresso minha gratidão a todos os professores que contribuíram ao longo do meu período de mestrado.A minha família merece um agradecimento especial por seu constante encorajamento e amor. Desde cedo, eles me incentivaram nos estudos, e suas palavras de estímulo foram um verdadeiro suporte durante toda a minha formação acadêmica. Aos meus amigos da graduação na UNICAMP, agradeço por compartilharem, mesmo à distância, essa jornada acadêmica comigo e por proporcionarem momentos valiosos de descontração e conversas sobre a vida.Quero expressar minha sincera gratidão a Vera pela assistência nas questões burocráticas e pelo apoio na resolução de dúvidas que surgiram ao longo deste caminho. Por último, gostaria de agradecer ao departamento de Ecologia e à FAPESP pelo suporte financeiro que tornou este projeto possível. Este trabalho foi realizado com o financiamento da Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP), processo nº 2021/04258-9.A todos vocês, minha sincera gratidão por terem feito parte desta jornada e por terem contribuído de maneira tão significativa para o sucesso desta dissertação e para a minha formação acadêmica.

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Age-Dependent Extinction and the Neutral Theory of Biodiversity

Cited by 3 publications

References 12 publications

Scaling approaches and macroecology provide a foundation for assessing ecological resilience in the Anthropocene

Scaling approaches and macroecology provide a foundation for assessing ecological resilience in the Anthropocene

Age-dependent extinction and the neutral theory of biodiversity

Como a delimitação de zonas adaptativas à partir de filogenia ou ecologia afeta a inferência de extinção dependente da idade?

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