Age-Structured Modeling of COVID-19 Epidemic in the USA, UAE and Algeria

Abstract

As the COVID-19 is still spreading in more than 180 countries, according to WHO. There is a need to understand the dynamics of this infection and predict its the impact on the public health capacity. This work aims to forecast the progress of the disease in three countries from different continents: The United States of America, the United Arab Emirates and Algeria. The existing data shows that the fatality of the disease is high in elderly people and people with comorbidity. Therefore, we consider an age-structured model. Our model also takes into consider two main components of the COVID-19 (a) the number of Infected hospitalized people, therefore, we estimate the number of beds (acute and critical) needed (2) the possible infection of the healthcare personals (HCP). Hence, the model predict the peak time and the number of infectious cases at the peak before and after the implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI), and we also compare this finding with case of full lockdown. Finally, we investigate the impact of the shortage of proper personal protective equipment (PPE) on the spread of the disease.

Simulating COVID-19 Trajectory in the UAE and the Impact of Possible Intervention Scenarios

“…In [4], the authors tried to estimate the number of required beds for both acute and critical cases in the UAE in addition to the possible infection of healthcare personnel. The simulation also predicted the peak time and the total infections before and after non-pharmaceutical interventions.…”

Fractional optimal control problem for an age-structured model of COVID-19 transmission

“…To reduce the number of infected individuals as well as to minimize the cost of implementing government control measures, an optimal control problem is formulated and solved. For more examples of works that addresses the problem of modelling and controlling the COVID-19 transmission, we refer to [12] , [13] , [14] , [15] , [16] .…”

Pattern formations of a delayed diffusive predator–prey model with predator harvesting and prey social behavior

“…The presence of herd behavior is the subject of investigation of many recent research activities we mention a few, 7,9–25 which shows the big importance of such as modelization for anticipating the behavior of some animals in nature. For more reading about mathematical modeling of natural phenomenon, we cite the previous papers 26–38 …”