Agent-Based Modeling for Super-Spreading Events: A Case Study of MERS-CoV Transmission Dynamics in the Republic of Korea

Abstract

Super-spreading events have been observed in the transmission dynamics of many infectious diseases. The 2015 MERS-CoV outbreak in the Republic of Korea has also shown super-spreading events with a significantly high level of heterogeneity in generating secondary cases. It becomes critical to understand the mechanism for this high level of heterogeneity to develop effective intervention strategies and preventive plans for future emerging infectious diseases. In this regard, agent-based modeling is a useful tool for incorporating individual heterogeneity into the epidemic model. In the present work, a stochastic agent-based framework is developed in order to understand the underlying mechanism of heterogeneity. Clinical (i.e., an infectivity level) and social or environmental (i.e., a contact level) heterogeneity are modeled. These factors are incorporated in the transmission rate functions under assumptions that super-spreaders have stronger transmission and/or higher links. Our agent-based model has employed real MERS-CoV epidemic features based on the 2015 MERS-CoV epidemiological data. Monte Carlo simulations are carried out under various epidemic scenarios. Our findings highlight the roles of super-spreaders in a high level of heterogeneity, underscoring that the number of contacts combined with a higher level of infectivity are the most critical factors for substantial heterogeneity in generating secondary cases of the 2015 MERS-CoV transmission.

The SARS-CoV-2 outbreak from a one health perspective

“…[12] The reasons behind the switch from the detection of the viral nucleic acids by real-time PCR to CT scanning at that time for patient identification are (i) to give a chance to all patients to get the proper care at the right time (ii) the variation in the incubation period of the viral infection among various people (iii) the possibility of super-spreader of the virus who shed the virus to the environment in large numbers and poses a great risk of infection to the close contact people. This phenomenon have been reported previously in Ebola, virus, SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV, and recently in SARS-CoV-2 [13][14][15].…”

Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of public health measures to control COVID-19: a modelling study

“…(which was not certified by peer review) domain, each agent was susceptible initially, then the COVID-19 cases were introduced into the agents. The infectious agent could infect the susceptible agents with the infectious ability following the distance transmission probability function of β (r) [6]. The simulation would stop when there did not exist an exposed or infected agent in the space.…”

Exploration of Superspreading Events in 2015 MERS-CoV Outbreak in Korea by Branching Process Models

“…The effects of isolation and control interventions were highlighted in the MERS-CoV dynamics. Agent-based models also were developed for the 2015 MERS-CoV outbreak [ 14 , 19 ]. These results underscored the importance of a loner-contact range of super-spreaders and corresponding interventions.…”