Aggregation of Gridded Emulated Rainfed Crop Yield Projections at the National or Regional Level

Blanc, Élodie

doi:10.21642/jgea.020203af

Cited by 7 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…So the distribution mode and time of eco-water diversion project is very important for the long-term stable and healthy development of plant. Moreover, as water availability pose serious constraints to irrigation (Elliott et al,2014;Blanc et al, 2017), key water demand stage of vegetation is a concern when distributing the time of eco-water diversion. Thus, it is necessary to follow the ecological characteristics and water demand process of vegetation, and making the hydrological processes consistent with ecological processes.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Eco-water diversion project is not a simply measure to improve the ecological environment

2022

Global NEST: The International Journal

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<p>The Heihe River is the second longest inland river in China, which is one of the most important inland river basins in the northwest area. The effect of drought on ecological environment can be exacerbated by climate change. Eco-water diversion project was implemented since 2000 to solve the increasingly serious problem of ecological environment deterioration in the lower reaches of Heihe River Basin. In order to reveal whether the eco-water diversion project solve the ecological environment deterioration thoroughly, the change of hydrology and vegetation were investigated and compared by using the remote sensing data, field surveys, monitoring and statistics data. Our results showed that the soil water content, groundwater level and vegetation coverage increased after eco-water diversion, especially in 0-20cm, the value increased 30.05%, which results vegetation restoration in some area. However, the seasonal distribution of eco-water diversion is extremely uneven, 70% of the runoff is mainly concentrated in January to March, and September to October. Water was seriously insufficient in the critical water demand period of plants such as germination and fruit period due to river cutout. Moreover, some areas were degraded due to salinization. In addition, the extreme change of soil water is not conducive to plant growth, but will increase the waste of water resources due to the increasing of ineffective surface evaporation. It is difficult to improve the quantity of discharged water in the upper reaches of Heihe River, so the distribution time and mode is very important for stable and healthy development of vegetation in the downstream. Therefore, eco-water diversion project is not a simply measure to improve the ecological environment. We suggested that hydrological processes should be consistent with ecological processes in the lower reaches of Heihe River, otherwise, the most important significance of eco-water diversion project will be lost. Exploring this will be helpful in formulate scientific and reasonable water dispatching scheme, achieve water resources allocation and water demand matching, improve ecological benefits.</p>

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Eco-water diversion project is not a simply measure to improve the ecological environment

2022

Global NEST: The International Journal

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“…crops&livest.'' Two models, pDSSAT and GEPIC, are site-based models applied at the global level, while the three others, LPJ-GUESS, LPJmL and PEGASUS, are global ecosystem models integrating site-based model mechanisms and parameters (Blanc, 2017a(Blanc, , 2017b. They estimate crop yields at a fine resolution (0.5 30.5 degree) globally by considering the detailed effect of weather (monthly, daily, or even hourly) on crop growth.…”

Section: Development Of Forcing Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

Agriculture and forest land use change in the continental United States: Are there tipping points?

2021

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“…In contrast, the median IPCC impact is negative for nearly all crops and all regions, with the exception being small increases in soybean yields in a couple of regions. 2014) and author's estimation using five crop emulators based on Blanc (2017aBlanc ( , 2017b We linearly interpolate yield changes from zero in 2020 to the 2050 median yield impacts for both IPCC and emulated GGCM scenarios when implemented in EPPA-Agriculture. Yield impacts on crops are applied in the model as a shock to land use productivity, and productivity impacts on livestock activities are applied as shocks to their total factor productivity.…”

Section: Extending Impacts To Livestockmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…1 Range of climate impacts on yields by 2050 from IPCC and GGCMs. Source: Author's compilation based on Porter et al (2014) and author's estimation using five crop emulators based onBlanc (2017aBlanc ( , 2017b…”

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confidence: 99%

Challenges in simulating economic effects of climate change on global agricultural markets

2021

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Many approaches have been used to investigate climate change impacts on agriculture. However, several caveats remain in this field: (i) analyses focus only on a few major crops, (ii) large differences in yield impacts are observed between projections from site-based crops models and Global Gridded Crop Models (GGCMs), (iii) climate change impacts on livestock are rarely quantified, and (iv) several causal relations among biophysical, environmental, and socioeconomic aspects are usually not taken into account. We investigate how assumptions about these four aspects affect agricultural markets, food supply, consumer well-being, and land use at global level by deploying a large-scale socioeconomic model of the global economy with detailed representation of the agricultural sector. We find global welfare impacts several times larger when climate impacts all crops and all livestock compared to a scenario with impacts limited to major crops. At the regional level, food budget can decrease by 10 to 25% in developing countries, challenging food security. The role of land area expansion as a major source of adaptation is highlighted. Climate impacts on crop yields from site-based process crop models generate more challenging socioeconomic outcomes than those from GGCMs. We conclude that the agricultural research community should expand efforts to estimate climate impacts on many more crops and livestock. Also, careful comparison of the GGCMs and traditional site-based process crop models is needed to understand their major implications for agricultural and food markets.

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Aggregation of Gridded Emulated Rainfed Crop Yield Projections at the National or Regional Level

Cited by 7 publications

References 24 publications

Eco-water diversion project is not a simply measure to improve the ecological environment

Eco-water diversion project is not a simply measure to improve the ecological environment

Agriculture and forest land use change in the continental United States: Are there tipping points?

Challenges in simulating economic effects of climate change on global agricultural markets

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