Age differences in causal judgment are consistently greater for preventative/negative relationships than for generative/positive relationships. We used a feature analytic procedure (Mandel & Lehman, 1998) to determine whether this effect might be due to differences in young and older adults' integration of contingency evidence during causal induction. To reduce the impact of age-related changes in learning/memory we presented contingency evidence for preventative, non-contingent, and generative relationships in summary form and to induce participants to integrate greater or lesser amounts of this evidence, we varied the meaningfulness of the causal context. Young adults showed greater flexibility in their integration processes than older adults. In an abstract causal context, there were no age differences in causal judgment or integration, but in meaningful contexts, young adults' judgments for preventative relationships were more accurate than older adults' and they assigned more weight to the contingency evidence confirming these relationships. These differences were mediated by age-related changes in processing speed. The decline in this basic cognitive resource may place boundaries on the amount or the type of evidence that older adults can integrate for causal judgment.
KeywordsAging; causal judgment; integrative processing; working memory People can acquire knowledge of the causal structure of the world through experience or description (Shanks, 1991). In the first case, direct observations of instances in which the presence or absence of a putative cause leads to the presence or absence of a target effect accumulate over an extended period of time. For example, one can learn whether a particular food causes an allergic reaction by observing over several months instances in which a reaction does or does not occur after consuming or not consuming the food. In the second case, this contingency evidence is provided in the form of a summary of the overall frequencies of the cause and effect event state combinations or from linguistic descriptions of causal scenarios. Thus, one can infer that a food is the putative cause of salmonella poisoning by reading in the newspaper that out of a group of people who consumed the food a large number became sick whereas out of a group of people who did not consume the food no one became sick. Learning and memory clearly play a larger role in the acquisition of contingency evidence through Correspondence concerning this article should be addressed to Sharon A. Mutter, Department of Psychology, Western Kentucky University, 1906 College Heights Blvd. #21030, Bowling Green, KY 42101. sharon.mutter@wku.edu. Publisher's Disclaimer: The following manuscript is the final accepted manuscript. It has not been subjected to the final copyediting, fact-checking, and proofreading required for formal publication. It is not the definitive, publisher-authenticated version. The American Psychological Association and its Council of Editors disclaim any responsibility or liabilities fo...