Agricultural investments and hunger in Africa modeling potential contributions to SDG2 – Zero Hunger

Mason-D’Croz, Daniel; Sulser, Timothy B.; Wiebe, Keith; Rosegrant, Mark W.; Lowder, Sarah K.; Nin‐Pratt, Alejandro; Willenbockel, Dirk; Robinson, Sherman; Zhu, Tingju; Cenacchi, Nicola; Dunston, Shahnila; Robertson, Richard D.

doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2018.12.006

Cited by 104 publications

(63 citation statements)

References 72 publications

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“…Given that most fruits and vegetables are used relatively near the point of production, these investments should be targeted to promote production in regions where projected supply is inadequate, such as sub-Saharan Africa, parts of Asia, and the Pacific. Investments in agriculture have been broadly shown to have substantial potential to increase incomes and food security, particularly in Africa 43 . Therefore, investments in this sector could carry additional co-benefits in contributing to several Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs; eg, SDG 1: no poverty and SDG 2: zero hunger), especially when we consider the importance of small-scale producers in fruit and vegetable production in these regions 44 …”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Gaps between fruit and vegetable production, demand, and recommended consumption at global and national levels: an integrated modelling study

Mason-D’Croz

Bogard

Sulser

et al. 2019

The Lancet Planetary Health

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232

128

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Background Current diets are detrimental to both human and planetary health and shifting towards more balanced, predominantly plant-based diets is seen as crucial to improving both. Low fruit and vegetable consumption is itself a major nutritional problem. We aim to better quantify the gap between future fruit and vegetable supply and recommended consumption levels by exploring the interactions between supply and demand in more than 150 countries from 1961 to 2050. Methods In this global analysis, we use the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade, which simulates the global agricultural sector, to explore the role of insufficient production of fruits and vegetables and the effects of food waste and public policy in achieving recommended fruit and vegetable consumption. First, we estimate the average historical (1961-2010) and future (2010-50) national consumption levels needed to meet WHO targets (a minimum target of 400 g/person per day or age-specific recommendations of 330-600 g/person per day) using population pyramids; for future consumption, we use projections from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), a set of global socioeconomic scenarios characterised by varied assumptions on economic and population growth. We then simulate future fruit and vegetable production and demand to 2050 under three such scenarios (SSP1-3) to assess the potential impacts of economic, demographic, and technological change on consumer and producer behaviour. We then explore the potential effects of food waste applying various waste assumptions (0-33% waste). Finally, we apply two policy analysis frameworks (the NOURISHING framework and the Nuffield ladder) to assess the current state of public policy designed to achieve healthy diets. Findings Historically, fruit and vegetable availability has consistently been insufficient to supply recommended consumption levels. By 2015, 81 countries representing 55% of the global population had average fruit and vegetable availability above WHO's minimum target. Under more stringent age-specific recommendations, only 40 countries representing 36% of the global population had adequate availability. Although economic growth will help to increase fruit and vegetable availability in the future, particularly in lower-income countries, this alone will be insufficient. Even under the most optimistic socioeconomic scenarios (excluding food waste), many countries fail to achieve sufficient fruit and vegetable availability to meet even the minimum recommended target. Sub-Saharan Africa is a particular region of concern, with projections suggesting, by 2050, between 0•8 and 1•9 billion people could live in countries with average fruit and vegetable availability below 400 g/person per day. Food waste is a serious obstacle that could erode projected gains. Assuming 33% waste and socioeconomic trends similar to historical patterns, the global average availability in 2050 falls below age-specific recommendations, increasing the number of people living in countries ...

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Gaps between fruit and vegetable production, demand, and recommended consumption at global and national levels: an integrated modelling study

Mason-D’Croz

Bogard

Sulser

et al. 2019

The Lancet Planetary Health

Self Cite

232

128

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Similarly, projections to 2050 indicate that between 0.8 and 1.9 billion people living in countries in sub-Saharan Africa might need to contend with average fruit and vegetable availability below 400 g/person per day [33]. This estimate does not yet take food waste into consideration.…”

Section: The Importance Of Vegetables For Nutrition Securitymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Investments in fruit and vegetable production should primarily target regions where projected supply is insufficient, such as sub-Saharan Africa, parts of Asia, and the Pacific. As fruit and vegetable production is mostly in the hands of small-scale producers in these regions, investments in this sector would have substantial potential to increase incomes and food security in these regions, particularly in Africa [33], thus contributing to the attainment of SDG 1-no poverty and SDG 2-zero hunger.…”

Section: Research and Development Efforts Focusing On Vegetablesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, several studies suggested that current and projected fruit and vegetable production levels will fail to meet healthy consumption levels [ 31 , 32 ]. Following age-specific recommendations, only 40 countries representing 36% of the global population had adequate availability of fruit and vegetables by 2015 [ 33 ]. In many food-insecure countries in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, average fruit and vegetable consumption is well below WHO-recommended levels, with 10 countries not even meeting 30% of the recommended intake levels [ 34 ].…”

Section: The Importance Of Vegetables For Nutrition Securitymentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Role of Vegetable Genetic Resources in Nutrition Security and Vegetable Breeding

Ebert

2020

Plants

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Malnutrition, comprising undernutrition, micronutrient deficiency, and overnutrition, is more widespread than hunger per se and affects most nations around the globe. The diversity and the quality of food produced and consumed are decisive factors when addressing the triple burden of malnutrition. In this context, fruit, vegetables, and nuts are increasingly moving into the focus of the nutrition community. Agricultural policies and investments in agriculture are predominantly focused on staple food production, neglecting the economic and nutritional potential of fruit and vegetables. While global vegetables are well represented in genebanks around the globe, this is much less the case for traditional vegetables. Collecting efforts in hotspots of vegetable diversity in Africa and Asia are required to conserve this germplasm before it is being replaced by modern varieties. Home gardens, community seedbanks, and variety introduction through vegetable seed kits are ways how genebanks can link with the farming community to strengthen the informal seed sector. This in turn may result in more diverse production systems and increased consumption of fruit and vegetables. In the formal seed sector, vegetable breeders need access to a wide diversity of genetic resources, predominantly farmers’ varieties, landraces, and crop wild relatives. Genomics-assisted breeding is increasingly facilitating the introgression of favorable genes and quantitative trait loci (QTLs) with complex inheritance patterns from wild species into cultigens. This will lead to wider use of crop wild relatives in the development of resilient cultivars.

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“…Mason‐D'Croz et al. (2019) use the IMPACT framework of linked biophysical and structural economic models to examine developments in global agricultural production systems, climate change, and food security. They conclude that investments to increase agricultural productivity can offset the adverse impacts of climate change and help reduce the share of people at risk of hunger in 2030.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Agricultural R&D investment intensity: A misleading conventional measure and a new intensity index

Nin‐Pratt

2021

Agricultural Economics

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The conventional wisdom that developing countries are significantly underinvesting in agricultural research and development (R&D) has been challenged by studies that found that the high rates of return in the literature result from data limitations and inadequate modeling choices. However, evidence of low research effort in developing countries as measured by the intensity ratio (IR)—the percentage of agricultural gross domestic product invested in agricultural R&D—has not been questioned. This article argues that the IR is an inadequate indicator of research effort and proposes an alternative index to measure R&D intensity. Using the proposed index, we find that the investment effort in developing countries is much higher than the one observed when the IR is used, that the contribution of low‐ and middle‐income (LMI) countries to growth in global R&D intensity was higher to that of high‐income (HI) countries in recent years, that the investment gap in LMI countries is close to 50% of R&D investment, and that the proposed development goal of a 1.0% value of the IR is beyond the possibilities of most Asian and African countries.

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Agricultural investments and hunger in Africa modeling potential contributions to SDG2 – Zero Hunger

Cited by 104 publications

References 72 publications

Gaps between fruit and vegetable production, demand, and recommended consumption at global and national levels: an integrated modelling study

Gaps between fruit and vegetable production, demand, and recommended consumption at global and national levels: an integrated modelling study

The Role of Vegetable Genetic Resources in Nutrition Security and Vegetable Breeding

Agricultural R&D investment intensity: A misleading conventional measure and a new intensity index

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