Agriculture and economic transformation in the Middle East and North Africa: A review of the past with lessons for the future

Institute, International Food Policy Research

doi:10.2499/9780896292956

Cited by 4 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 38 publications

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“…For instance, Egypt's overall food supply has been smoothly increasing along with domestic production, with imports increasing at slower rates. Domestic food production seems to be responding to growing food demand throughout the whole period, driven mainly by steady increases in agricultural productivity (Nin-Pratt et al 2018). This is slightly different in the case of Jordan, where food imports are higher than domestic food production.…”

Section: Evolution Of Food Systems In Egypt Jordan and Iraqmentioning

confidence: 95%

Food policies and their implications on overweight and obesity trends in selected countries in the Near East and North Africa region

2020

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Section: Evolution Of Food Systems In Egypt Jordan and Iraqmentioning

confidence: 95%

Food policies and their implications on overweight and obesity trends in selected countries in the Near East and North Africa region

2020

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Can the Middle East-North Africa region mitigate the rise of its food import dependency under climate change?

et al. 2023

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The dependence on imports of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region for its food needs has increased steadily since the early 1960s, from 10% to about 40%. This import dependence could continue to rise in coming decades due to the projected MENA population growth and the expected negative impacts of climate change on the region’s natural resources and agricultural performances. To what extent the food import dependency of the MENA region will continue to increase up to 2050 and how the region could mitigate its rising reliance on food imports is both a key question for the region itself and a crucial geopolitical issue for the world as a whole. In this paper, we use a biomass balance model to assess the level of the food import dependency of the MENA region in 2050 resulting from six scenarios. We show that under current trends and severe impacts of climate change the food import dependency of the MENA would continue to rise and reach 50% in 2050. Maghreb would be particularly affected becoming dependent on imports for almost 70% of its food needs. Adopting a Mediterranean diet, reaching faster productivity growth in agriculture or reducing waste and loss along the food chain would contribute to decelerate the rise of the MENA’s food import dependency. However, only the combination of these three options could significantly offset the increased import dependency in the most affected sub-regions: Maghreb, the Middle and the Near East. In all scenarios, Turkey strengthens its position as a net exporter of agricultural products. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10113-023-02045-y.

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Food security under water scarcity: a comparative analysis of Egypt and Jordan

et al. 2022

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Although there seems enough water available for our global food needs, there are large areas with growing water scarcity. Food security in these water scarce areas cannot be met through self-sufficiency. The only option is to become more dependent on food imports which is increasingly risky due to volatility in production and food prices. Before 2008, declining food prices and increasing global cereal production favoured the food import strategy. The 2008 world food crisis represented a shock to this strategy and renewed attention was paid to the self-sufficiency strategy. The aim of this paper is to compare the food security strategies of Egypt and Jordan, two water-stressed, increasingly populated, oil-poor countries, pre and post 2008, by means of a food-water analytical framework using FAOSTAT data. Findings show that Egypt and Jordan have many similarities in their food security situation as both are highly dependent on food imports (Egypt 50%, Jordan 95%), and both have a reduced capacity to absorb future price increases. As food imports are inevitable under the water scarce context of Egypt and Jordan, it is important to focus on how to cope with volatilities. Our analysis shows that Jordan has better absorbed the costs of rising food imports than Egypt and that Egypt is trapped by its high domestic cereal production. Having revealed the limited options available to water-scarce countries for food security, we discuss the potential of grain reserves to cope with future price hikes and production shocks.

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Agriculture and economic transformation in the Middle East and North Africa: A review of the past with lessons for the future

Cited by 4 publications

References 38 publications

Food policies and their implications on overweight and obesity trends in selected countries in the Near East and North Africa region

Food policies and their implications on overweight and obesity trends in selected countries in the Near East and North Africa region

Can the Middle East-North Africa region mitigate the rise of its food import dependency under climate change?

Food security under water scarcity: a comparative analysis of Egypt and Jordan

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