Agriculture Land Use Change and Demographic Change in Response to Decline Suspended Sediment in Južna Morava River Basin (Serbia)

Abstract

This study expounds the dynamic relationships among agricultural land-use change, rural population migration, and sediment transport. The variability of suspended sediment load was detected by Mann–Kendall and Pettitt tests. From 1961 to 2007, the annual trend in suspended sediment concentration and sediment load demonstrated significant reduction (α = 0.001), with decreasing rates of 0.0144 g/L/y and 84.7 t/y, respectively. An abrupt change-point was detected in 1984 for the sediment load (p = 0.0001). The double-mass curve method and regression analysis of sediment load versus precipitation were used to quantify the effects of climate change and human activities on sediment load variations. The changes in sediment load were predominantly impacted by human activities (89%), while precipitation explained 11% of the reduction in suspended sediment. An important land-use change recorded in the Južna Morava river basin comprised the abandonment of agricultural lands due to depopulation processes, as well as economic and social changes, which was followed by significant impacts on soil erosion and sediment transport. Land abandonment was most pronounced in marginal mountain or semi-mountainous areas, where agriculture was until recent decades traditional or semi-traditional. The results of the correlation matrix were significant at the p < 0.05 level, demonstrating that the decrease of rural population, agricultural land, and arable land were directly related to the decline of suspended sediment. High correlation coefficients were found between anthropogenic indicators and sediment parameters, ranging from 0.94 to 0.97.

The Impact of Depopulation on Reduction of the Peaks of Torrential Floods in Selected Watersheds of the Southeastern Serbia

“…The second factor of land use changes is also high index of the population aging. Later, Manojlović et al (2021Manojlović et al ( , 2022 demonstrated similar results in research for the Južna Morava river basin (A = 15,469 km 2 , comprising the Nišava watreshed) and for the Velika Morava river basin encompassing the Južna Morava river basin (A = 37,561 km 2 ). In both studies, it is shown that the decrease of rural population and areas of agricultural and arable land were directly related to the decline of suspended sediment.…”

The Impact of Depopulation on Reduction of the Peaks of Torrential Floods in Selected Watersheds of the Southeastern Serbia

“…The second factor of land use changes is also high index of the population aging. Later, Manojlović et al [4,5] demonstrated similar results in research for the Južna Morava river basin (A = 15,469 km 2 , comprising the Nišava watreshed) and for the Velika Morava river basin encompassing the Južna Morava river basin (A = 37,561 km 2 ). In both studies, it is shown that the decrease of rural population and areas of agricultural and arable land were directly related to the decline of suspended sediment.…”

Depopulation cluster: Settlements with 20 or less inhabitants in Serbia

“…Uzroci depopulacije u Srbiji su proučavani od početka 20. veka sa različitih aspekata, koji su povezani i mogu se klasifikovati i hronološki i prostorno. Među najznačajnijim se navode: agrarna prenaseljenost, ratovi i prisilne migracije, bolesti, promene granica, promene oblika vladavine, promene administrativnih jedinica, nacionalizacija imovine, emigracija mladog stanovništva, nepovoljna obrazovna struktura stanovništva, pad nataliteta, deagrarizacija, starenje stanovništva (Martinović & Ratkaj, 2015;Manojlović et al, 2021;Велојић & Радовановић, 2003;Мартиновић, 2004;Мартиновић & Шантић, 2006;Миливојевић et al, 2007;Милошевић et al, 2008;Milošević et al, 2010;Milošević et al, 2011;Babović, et al, 2016;Nikitović, 2019;Gatarić et al, 2022;Šabić et al, 2022;Gajić et al, 2022;Grupa autora, 2022;Ranković, 2023). Pomenuta naučna istraživanja ponudila su odgovore na pitanja zašto se sela prazne i do kakvih to posledica dovodi.…”