In many Eastern European countries, the standard of living increased as a result of the process of industrialization in the second half of the 20th Century. Consequently, the population in rural areas with small-scale farming decreased due to the availability of employment elsewhere. This directly impacted soil erosion (and thereby sustainability of the land), but the degree and direction are not well known. This study investigates two municipalities within Serbia, their change in population and its impact on land use changes and soil erosion. The standard of living increased after the industrialization process in the 1960s within these municipalities. The erosion potential model is used to calculate gross annual erosion. The changes related to population and arable land in rural settlements are analyzed according to proportional spatial changes. The results show an overall decrease of erosion intensity in the study area. In addition, two basic findings are derived: first, the highest level of human impact on soil is in rural settlements at the lowest elevation zones, where erosion intensity shows the least amount of decrease; and, second, the most intensive depopulation process, recorded in higher elevation zones, indicates a rapid decrease of erosion intensity.
Sediment transport time series have shown a severe change in the suspended sediment load transported by the Velika Morava River (Republic of Serbia) during the last few decades. The research objectives of this study were to determine the suspended sediment trends, and to assess the impact of variations in precipitation and human activities on the suspended sediment load. The causes and timing of this severe decrease were analyzed, and the results show that there has been a significant sudden shift downwards for the suspended sediment load (p < 0.0001) during the research period. The change points for sediment load were very similar and the transition years all ranged between 1982 and 1984. The combined effects of precipitation and human activities are responsible for the decrease in the suspended sediment load, with human activity being the most active factor in the sediment regime changes. The contribution rate for human activities amounts to 87.7-91.9%, while precipitation explains 8.1-12.3% of the reduction in the suspended sediment load. The processes of deagrarization and depopulation had an influence on the sediment load decrease in the study area. The results of the spatial autocorrelation analysis of rural settlements showed that the reduction in sediment was due to the process of depopulation and the large reduction in the amount of arable land in rural areas and settlements. The changes in sediment regimes were also influenced by soil and water conservation programmes.
One of the biggest problems of environmental protection in Serbia is landfills. It is often a case that the economic interests are predominant in the landfill sitting; thus, most landfills are not located according to standards. This study shows that detailed geological data assets combined with geographical modeling represents a reliable way to define and locate the landfill site. Geological evaluation is discussed in detail with regard to bedrock lithology, quaternary geology, geological structure, hydrogeology, surface runoff patterns, and topography. An approach combining geographical modeling and geology is presented for determining the sites suitable for landfill selection with respect to their geologic favorability. As opposed to numerous research papers on this topic, in the methodological procedure, special importance is devoted to the analysis of the geological criteria. In this way, it is significantly easier to determine the landfill area with the best characteristics due to geological structure and lithology which unequivocally and precisely indicates inadequate territories for candidate sites. The multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) is based on geological criteria upgraded with road (primary, residential, secondary, and tertiary), settlements network, railway, airport, infrastructure, land use, hypsometry aquifer, wetland, and surface water. The score values are divided into four classes, i.e., restricted areas, suitable but avoid, suitable, and most suitable. Combining geographical modeling with geology led to the recognition of two locations to be most favorable for landfill site located in the most suitable area, which represents 25.3% of the study area.
This study expounds the dynamic relationships among agricultural land-use change, rural population migration, and sediment transport. The variability of suspended sediment load was detected by Mann–Kendall and Pettitt tests. From 1961 to 2007, the annual trend in suspended sediment concentration and sediment load demonstrated significant reduction (α = 0.001), with decreasing rates of 0.0144 g/L/y and 84.7 t/y, respectively. An abrupt change-point was detected in 1984 for the sediment load (p = 0.0001). The double-mass curve method and regression analysis of sediment load versus precipitation were used to quantify the effects of climate change and human activities on sediment load variations. The changes in sediment load were predominantly impacted by human activities (89%), while precipitation explained 11% of the reduction in suspended sediment. An important land-use change recorded in the Južna Morava river basin comprised the abandonment of agricultural lands due to depopulation processes, as well as economic and social changes, which was followed by significant impacts on soil erosion and sediment transport. Land abandonment was most pronounced in marginal mountain or semi-mountainous areas, where agriculture was until recent decades traditional or semi-traditional. The results of the correlation matrix were significant at the p < 0.05 level, demonstrating that the decrease of rural population, agricultural land, and arable land were directly related to the decline of suspended sediment. High correlation coefficients were found between anthropogenic indicators and sediment parameters, ranging from 0.94 to 0.97.
The intensity of soil erosion is the result of a combined action of natural factors and different human activities. This work aims to determine the factors controlling the change of soil erosion. Eleven watersheds from different parts of Serbia were used as the study area. An Erosion Potential Model was applied to estimate the soil erosion status of the watersheds in two periods, 1971 and 2010. The model indicated that the reduction of soil erosion intensity in the watersheds ranges from 12.4% to 82.7%. The statistical analysis examines quantitative relationships and combined effects between soil erosion and socio-economic and main physical-geographical determinants in watersheds. Watershed characteristics were divided into 5 classes, and within each class 22 variables were calculated: two variables relate to erosion, one to topography, two to land cover, seven to demographic and ten to agrarian variables. Correlation analysis and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) have been applied to understand the main variables that contribute to change soil erosion intensity. The PCA identified four components that can explain at least up to 79.06% of the variation of all variables. This study explores new indicators for correlations with changing soil erosion and provides decision makers with access to quantification for environmental impact assessment and decision-making for adequate soil conservation and management programs.
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