In the arid agricultural landscapes of Western Siberia, the productivity of leading grain crops is determined by adaptive agrotechnology, the use of intensification tools and hydrothermal conditions. The relatively low (up to 1.40-1.70 t/ha) and unstable yield of grain crops is mainly due to the limited use of fertilizers (up to 20 kg/ha), the aridity of the climate. Long-term studies have established that in the southern forest-steppe agricultural landscapes, precipitation of all periods of the year, except for spring, has an impact on grain productivity. Autumn moisture reserves determine the yield of spring wheat after its corn predecessor by 51% in general, up to 21% for steam, and only 13% for barley. The conjugacy of spring soil moisture is higher on wheat, on flat-cutting processing than on plowing, on intensive agrotechnology. The most significant combination of spring moisture reserves and summer precipitation (June-1st decade of July). The dependence of wheat yield after steam reaches a high conjugacy (r=0.77-0.84), after corn – from medium to strong (up to 59-71%). The correlation of yield with the temperature regime during the growing season is negative. The conjugacy with the value of GTK is more pronounced after the corn precursor – 46%, steam – up to 30%, barley only 8%, the greatest dependence was revealed with the Coefficient of dryness. The predicted yield level of high–quality grain with complex chemicalization and soil protection treatment with average long-term hydrothermal parameters on wheat after the corn precursor reaches 2.8 t/ha with a probability of up to 76%, and 3.4 t/ha for steam. To optimize the water regime, it is necessary to use additional moisture-accumulating agricultural techniques.