Aiding the intelligence analyst in situations of data overload: A simulation study of computer-supported inferential analysis under data overload

Patterson, Emily S.; Roth, Emilie M.; Woods, David D.

doi:10.1037/e444932005-001

Cited by 11 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 89 publications

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“…Weick [17] also observed that sense-making can be "driven by plausibility rather than accuracy". This reflects Patterson et al [14] in that decision makers are faced with inaccurate representations of the real-world and use strategies such as 'story-telling' [18] to fill-in the gaps and to create stories that explain the situation.…”

Section: Sense-making In Intelligence Analysismentioning

confidence: 91%

“…Because of missing elements of the needed data, analysts have to make guesses and abductive inferences to create plausible explanations that are developed via the Broadening / Narrowing model, rather than having access to "a full set of undisputed findings that are in a format that eliminates conflicts with each other and makes it easy to compare their relationships to explanatory hypotheses." [14].…”

Section: Intelligence Analysis Modelsmentioning

confidence: 95%

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How Analysts Think (?): Early Observations

Wong

2014

2014 IEEE Joint Intelligence and Security Informatics Conference

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In this paper we describe work-in-progress to develop a description of the ways by which intelligence analysts engage in the thinking and reasoning processes when engaged in the intelligence analysis task. Such a model will be used to inform the design the interactive visual interfaces for a next generation intelligence analysis system. We introduce the concepts of fluidity and rigour as key characteristics of the analysts' thinking landscape.

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Section: Sense-making In Intelligence Analysismentioning

confidence: 91%

Section: Intelligence Analysis Modelsmentioning

confidence: 95%

How Analysts Think (?): Early Observations

Wong

2014

2014 IEEE Joint Intelligence and Security Informatics Conference

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“…To address both the methodology and domain interests, this study was limited to investigating the intelligence analysts' basic process on (textual) data of information selection, cormboratiodresolution, and story construction (Patterson, Roth andWoods, 2001 and1999). With this method, a practitioner completes a mean@fid domain task.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Elicitation by Critiquing: An Exploratory Study

Miller

Patterson

Woods

2003

Proceedings of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society Annual

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Knowledge elicitation methods uncover information about how a practitioner works in a field. However, these methods have the challenges of grounding in context, accessibility to experts and tasks, being laborious and lime consuming, and repeatability. This study investigated a critiquing methodology's ability to address these challenges while still being authentic and generative. The domain investigated was military intelligence analysis, a field that experiences a constant turnover of workers. To maintain the highest level of productivity, the expertise of their miliintelligence analysis practitioners must be understd. A study was done involving a novice performing a basic analysis task. Then, six experts with various backgrounds critiqued the novice's process. The results suggest that the critiquing method addresses the challenges of knowledge elicitation methods while being authentic and generative. The specific guiding question for addressing both issues was 'Can the critiquing method be used to help unveil expertise in intelligence analysis?'

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“…The context is provided by the analyst in the form of a set of assumptions and expectations concerning human and organizational behavior." More recently, Woods (Patterson et al 1999 &2001) have written extensively on the importance of context relative to the problem being solved, specifically as it relates to intelligence analysts determining meaning. In a more recent work Woods et al (2002:27), state, "…the significance of a piece of data depends on: other related data; how the set of related data can vary with larger context; the goals and expectations of the observer; the state of problem-solving process and stance of others."…”

Section: Mental Models and Determining Meaningmentioning

confidence: 99%

Intelligence Analysis: Once Again

Mangio¹,

Wilkinson²

2010

Oxford Research Encyclopedia of International Studies

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Intelligence analysis is defined as analysis carried out by intelligence organizations. The essence of intelligence analysis is determining the meaning of information to develop knowledge and understanding. The meaning derived from the analysis is used to address many different types of questions, which are categorized in variety of ways. A general classification of the questions, sometimes described as types of intelligence or analysis, includes strategic intelligence. The seminal publication for describing and explaining the processes and attributes of strategic intelligence is Sherman Kent’s 1949 book, Strategic Intelligence for American World Policy. The intelligence literature acknowledges that determining meaning is influenced by the analyst’s mindset, mental model, or frame of mind. A variety of factors influence mental models, including context and purpose, past experience, education, cultural values, role requirements, organizational norms and the specifics of the information received. A recurring theme in intelligence literature is the use of scientific methods in intelligence analysis and the discussion of the analytic process in terms of scientific methods. Key elements of the analysis processes include hypotheses, information research, and the marshaling of evidence, and how they affect the determination of meaning. Intelligence research also emphasizes the importance of rigor in analytic thinking. Despite the accumulation of a substantial amount of scholarly work on intelligence since the 1940s and 1950s, the literature has not advanced on the core aspect of determining meaning from information to address the full range of complexities in intelligence analysis.

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Aiding the intelligence analyst in situations of data overload: A simulation study of computer-supported inferential analysis under data overload

Cited by 11 publications

References 89 publications

How Analysts Think (?): Early Observations

How Analysts Think (?): Early Observations

Elicitation by Critiquing: An Exploratory Study

Intelligence Analysis: Once Again

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