Investigating COPD trends may help healthcare providers to forecast future disease burden. We estimated sex-and smoking-specific incidence trends of pre-bronchodilator airflow obstruction (AO) among adults without asthma from 11 European countries within a 20-year follow-up (ECRHS and SAPALDIA cohorts). We also quantified the extent of misclassification in the definition based on prebronchodilator spirometry (using post-bronchodilator measurements from a subsample of subjects) and we used this information to estimate the incidence of post-bronchodilator AO (AO post-BD), which is the primary characteristic of COPD. AO incidence was 4.4 (95% CI: 3.5-5.3) male and 3.8 (3.1-4.6) female cases/1,000/year. Among ever smokers (median pack-years: 20, males; 12, females), AO incidence significantly increased with ageing in men only [incidence rate ratio (IRR), 1-year increase: 1.05 (1.03-1.07)]. A strong exposure-response relationship with smoking was found both in males [IRR, 1-packyear increase: 1.03 (1.02-1.04)] and females [1.03 (1.02-1.05)]. The positive predictive value of AO for Ao post-BD was 59.1% (52.0-66.2%) in men and 42.6% (35.1-50.1%) in women. AO post-BD incidence was 2.6 (1.7-3.4) male and 1.6 (1.0-2.2) female cases/1,000/year. AO incidence was considerable in Europe and the sex-specific ageing-related increase among ever smokers was strongly related to cumulative tobacco exposure. Ao post-BD incidence is expected to be half of AO incidence. Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) is a major cause of chronic morbidity and mortality worldwide 1 , and it represents an important public health challenge, being both a preventable and treatable disease 2. Globally, the COPD burden is projected to increase in coming decades because of continued exposure to risk factors and ageing of the population 3. COPD is characterised by a progressive airflow obstruction that is not fully reversible 4. According to the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease guidelines 2 , the diagnosis of COPD requires post-bronchodilator