All Possible Wars? Toward a Consensus View of the Future Security Environment, 2001-2025

Will the real security foresight expert please stand up?

“…In contrast, wild cards are events that cannot be predicted or fully anticipated, but at the same time, have the potential to "alter the international system by their reversal of significant trends, thereby undermining the facts upon which future planning is built" [48]. Since the probability for their occurrence and in many cases their exact nature will be unknown, they are difficult to incorporate into statistical models and computer simulations.…”

Emerging policy challenges in intellectual disabilities

“…It is not simply a matter of linear extrapolations to the future, but rather anticipating the forces that may shape future circumstances. Our review is framed and organized around these forces or ''drivers,'' to borrow a term from the field of scenario building [Coates, 2000;Tangredi, 2000]. How does one identify these processes?…”

“…There are no formalized methodologies for anticipating the future, but rather conceptual frameworks within which we attempt to tease out key themes. We employ here the conventions of scenario builders who begin their work with an ''active scan'' to detect early signals of themes in the macro-environment [Coates, 2000;Tangredi, 2000]. Though the labels may be unfamiliar, the task and objectives are not; social forecasting has a long history in the social sciences, particularly sociology [Henshel, 1982].…”