All-Star or Benchwarmer? Relative Age, Cohort Size and Career Success in the NHL

Abstract

We analyze the performance outcomes of National Hockey League (NHL) players over 18 seasons (1990-1991 to 2007-2008) as a function of the demographic conditions into which they were born. We have three main findings. First, larger birth cohorts substantially affect careers. A player born into a large birth cohort can expect an earnings loss of roughly 18 percent over the course of an average career as compared to a small birth cohort counterpart. The loss in earnings is driven chiefly by supply-side factors in the form of excess cohort competition and not quality differences since the performance of players (as measured by point totals for non-goalies) is actually significantly greater for players born into large birth cohorts. Performance-adjusted wage losses for those born in large birth cohorts are therefore greater than the raw estimates would suggest. Second, career effects differ by relative age. Those born in early calendar months (January to April) are more likely to make it into the NHL, but display significantly lower performance across all birth cohorts than later calendar births. In short, those in the top echelon of NHL achievement are drawn from fatter cohorts and later relative age categories, consistent with the need to be of greater relative talent in order to overcome significant early barriers (biases) in achievement. We find league expansions increase entry level salaries including the salaries of those born into larger birth cohorts, but they do not affect salaries of older players. Finally we find that the 2004-05 lockout appears to have muted the differentials in pay for large birth cohort players relative to their smaller birth cohort counterparts.

The Evidence Base for Generational Differences: Where Do We Go from Here?

“…Take for example a recent analysis by Bryson, Gomez and Zhang (2015), who consider the Relative Age, Cohort Size and Career Success in the NHL (National Hockey League). The authors analyse the performance outcomes of NHL players over 18 seasons between 1990-1991 and 2007-2008, with a focus on identifying the impact of demographic conditions into which a player was born.…”

The relative age effect reversal among the National Hockey League elite

“…Surprisingly, few studies have examined the RAE on player productivity in the National Hockey League (NHL) [ 7 , 8 ]. In these studies, there is evidence of a RAE reversal.…”

The Educated Underdog Becomes the Ultimate Superstar

“…Fumarco (2015) used a sample of football players in the Italian Series A and …nd that players born relatively late in an age group receive lower gross wages than players born earlier. He mostly attributes these results to the players born in the December cohort (see also, Gibbs et al, 2012, andBryson et al, 2014). This suggests that the discrimination hurdle is indeed important to explaining the overachievement e¤ect and that general peer e¤ects alone are insu¢ cient to explain this phenomenon.…”

“…Stylized fact 1 documents a strong RAE for the Swedish U17 team. However, recently, Gibbs et al (2012), and Bryson et al (2014) have found that players born later in the year might perform better in the long run. Closely related to our study is that of Ashworth and Heyndels (2007), which provides a theoretical graphical analysis of the e¤ects of selection and peer in ‡uence 5 There is a small theoretical literature on tracking.…”