Alteration of hydrologic indicators for Korean catchments under CMIP5 climate projections

Shin, Mun-Ju; Eum, Hyung‐Il; Kim, Chung-Soo; Jung, Il‐Won

doi:10.1002/hyp.10948

Cited by 10 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 86 publications

(126 reference statements)

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“…For the calibration of the parameters of the rainfall-runoff models, we selected the shuffled complex evolution (SCE) global optimization method [21,22], which is one of the popular parameter optimization methods [23][24][25][26]. The SCE algorithm incorporates the strengths of the simplex procedure [27], competitive evolution [28], controlled random search [29], and the concept of complex shuffling [21].…”

Section: Calibration Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Component Combination Test to Investigate Improvement of the IHACRES and GR4J Rainfall–Runoff Models

Shin¹,

Kim

2021

Water

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Rainfall–runoff models are not perfect, and the suitability of a model structure depends on catchment characteristics and data. It is important to investigate the pros and cons of a rainfall–runoff model to improve both its high- and low-flow simulation. The production and routing components of the GR4J and IHACRES models were combined to create two new models. Specifically, the GR_IH model is the combination of the production store of the GR4J model and the routing store of the IHACRES model (vice versa in the IH_GR model). The performances of the new models were compared to those of the GR4J and IHACRES models to determine components improving the performance of the two original models. The suitability of the parameters was investigated with sensitivity analysis using 40 years’ worth of spatiotemporally different data for five catchments in Australia. These five catchments consist of two wet catchments, one intermediate catchment, and two dry catchments. As a result, the effective rainfall production and routing components of the IHACRES model were most suitable for high-flow simulation of wet catchments, and the routing component improved the low-flow simulation of intermediate and one dry catchments. Both effective rainfall production and routing components of the GR4J model were suitable for low-flow simulation of one dry catchment. The routing component of the GR4J model improved the low- and high-flow simulation of wet and dry catchments, respectively, and the effective rainfall production component improved both the high- and low-flow simulations of the intermediate catchment relative to the IHACRES model. This study provides useful information for the improvement of the two models.

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Section: Calibration Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Component Combination Test to Investigate Improvement of the IHACRES and GR4J Rainfall–Runoff Models

Shin¹,

Kim

2021

Water

Self Cite

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“…In the analysis of the Danseong and Museong catchments, (1) the simulated flow according to the dt setting method was compared to the observed flow to evaluate its accuracy, and (2) an analysis was performed on the variability of the optimal parameter values which were calibrated by the shuffled complex evolution (SCE) algorithm [13,14] for each dt setting method. The SCE algorithm is a widely used parameter optimization algorithm [15] that is currently employed in a variety of fields [16][17][18][19][20]. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) [21] was used as the objective function for parameter optimization.…”

Section: Real Catchments Real Rainfall Events and Analysis Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Preliminary Study of Computational Time Steps in a Physically Based Distributed Rainfall–Runoff Model

Choi

Shin²,

Kim

2018

Water

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The choice of the computational time step (dt) value and the method for setting dt can have a bearing on the accuracy and performance of a simulation, and this effect has not been comprehensively researched across different simulation conditions. In this study, the effects of the fixed time step (FTS) method and the automatic time step (ATS) method on the simulated runoff of a distributed rainfall–runoff model were compared. The results revealed that the ATS method had less peak flow variability than the FTS method for the virtual catchment. In the FTS method, the difference in time step had more impact on the runoff simulation results than the other factors such as differences in the amount of rainfall, the density of the stream network, or the spatial resolution of the input data. Different optimal parameter values according to the computational time step were found when FTS and ATS were used in a real catchment, and the changes in the optimal parameter values were smaller in ATS than in FTS. The results of our analyses can help to yield reliable runoff simulation results.

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“…RCP 4.5 is a scenario that stabilizes a radiative forcing of 4.5 W•m −2 in 2100 without exceeding this value. Table 1 shows the 26 GCMs selected in the previous climate change studies [24,27] in descending order of spatial resolution, where grid points are collected within E119°-135°and N29°-43°. Using climate projections at the grid points of each GCM, we applied three statistical downscaling methods to downscale to the automated synoptic observing system (ASOS) stations in Figure 2.…”

Section: Climate Change Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Extreme Precipitation Events: Applications of CMIP5 Climate Projections Statistically Downscaled over South Korea

Sung

Eum

Park

et al. 2018

Advances in Meteorology

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Climate change may accelerate the water cycle at a global scale, resulting in more frequent extreme climate events. This study analyzed changes in extreme precipitation events employing climate projections statistically downscaled at a station-space scale in South Korea. Among the CMIP5 climate projections, based on spatial resolution, this study selected 26 climate projections that provide daily precipitation under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5. The results show that a 20-year return period of precipitation event during a reference period (1980∼2005) corresponds to a 16.6 yr for 2011 to 2040, 14.1 yr for 2041 to 2070, and 12.8 yr for 2071 to 2100, indicating more frequent extreme maximum daily precipitation may occur in the future. In addition, we found that the probability density functions of the future periods are located out of the 10% confidence interval of the PDF for the reference period. The result indicates that the design standard under the reference climate is not managed to cope with climate change, and accordingly the revision of the design standard is required to improve sustainability in infrastructures.

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Alteration of hydrologic indicators for Korean catchments under CMIP5 climate projections

Cited by 10 publications

References 86 publications

Component Combination Test to Investigate Improvement of the IHACRES and GR4J Rainfall–Runoff Models

Component Combination Test to Investigate Improvement of the IHACRES and GR4J Rainfall–Runoff Models

Preliminary Study of Computational Time Steps in a Physically Based Distributed Rainfall–Runoff Model

Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Extreme Precipitation Events: Applications of CMIP5 Climate Projections Statistically Downscaled over South Korea

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