Amount of Poverty as Policy Basis: A Forecasting Using The Holt Method

Syaharuddin, Syaharuddin; Ahmad, Ahmad

doi:10.30812/varian.v4i1.849

Cited by 2 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 6 publications

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“…The Holt smoothing method has the advantage of being able to analyze three components of the data pattern, namely providing greater weighting of the latest data, estimating trend patterns, and estimating seasonal patterns from the data so that it will produce forecasting with the smallest error rate [8]. Also, the Holt method can be used to predict the next few periods [9], unlike the Single Exponential Smoothing forecasting method that can only be used to forecast one period.…”

Section: Maricar (2019) Conduct Research On Moving Average Accuracy Value Comparison and Exponentialmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparison of Accuracy and Predictive Results of ES-Holt Method and ANN-Back Propagation Method: Case Study of Number of Tourists

Syaharuddin¹,

Sihombing²,

Agustina³

et al. 2021

Proceedings of the 2nd International Seminar of Science and Applied Technology (ISSAT 2021)

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The COVID-19 pandemic has weakened many sectors, one of which is tourism. Almost all priority tourism locations of the government experience a significant decrease in the number of foreign and domestic visitors. This also impacts the level of welfare of the community around the tourism area. This study is conducted to compare the Exponential Smoothing (ES) Holt and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) Back Propagation methods. That aims to see how the effectiveness and accuracy of both methods to be applied to the predictive process of the number of tourist visits in North Maluku Province using the G-MFS-based MATLAB application. The data on the number of tourists were taken from the Central Statistics Agency of North Maluku Province in 2008-2019. The accuracy parameter indicates that the error for the Holt method has a MAPE value of 9.2976. As for the Back Propagation method, the error is smaller, with a MAPE value of 1.2585. From the results, in 2020 the number of tourists visiting North Maluku should have been around 13,868 people per month. This result can at least be compared to the number of real visitors in 2020 during the COVID-19 outbreak. There is a very high difference between what was predicted and what happened in the field. From the results of this research, it is expected that tourism-related parties or institutions can conduct further research and studies so that they can know the policies to be taken in order to increase the number of tourists visiting North Maluku Province.

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Section: Maricar (2019) Conduct Research On Moving Average Accuracy Value Comparison and Exponentialmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparison of Accuracy and Predictive Results of ES-Holt Method and ANN-Back Propagation Method: Case Study of Number of Tourists

Syaharuddin¹,

Sihombing²,

Agustina³

et al. 2021

Proceedings of the 2nd International Seminar of Science and Applied Technology (ISSAT 2021)

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“…Berdasarkan hasil simulasi data dari 10 metode yang diuji diketahui bahwa metode Holt paling akurat dengan hasil prediksi 2018 sama dengan 67.45 dengan MAD, MSE, dan MAPE masing-masing sama dengan 0,22654, 0,075955 dan 0,34829 (Sucipto & Syaharuddin, 2018). Prediksi jumlah penduduk miskin menggunakan metode Holt (Syaharuddin & Ahmad, 2020). Sedangkan metode ARIMA merupakan metode yang fleksibel untuk berbagai macam data deret waktu, termasuk untuk menghadapi fluktuasi (Darsyah, 2015), (Fejriani et al, 2020).…”

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Prediction of Land Area Harvest, Production, Rice Productivity: A Accuracy Analysis of ARIMA Methods

Ibrahim

Negara

Syaharuddin

2021

Protech

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This study aims to find out the best forecasting model with ARIMA method. The data used by this study is the area of harvest, production and productivity in East Java Province in 2000-2020. Data analysis used is ARIMA method with accuracy parameters used namely MSE, MAPE, and MAD. The results showed that (1) the error rate of ARIMA method in the harvest area, MAD value of 1,013,810,484; MSE value of 16,484,292,627,223; MAPE value of 48.25; (2) ARIMA method error rate in Production, MAD value of 5,975,703,193, MSE value of 5,886,684,845,403,590, MAPE value of 54.60; (3) the last error of ARIMA method in productivity, MAD value of 14,705, MSE value of 39,969, MAPE value of 25.62. The simulation results showed that of the four mathematical models that became the output of G-MFS, the 1st mathematical model became the best model in determining the prediction results due to smaller error parameters with a predicted planting area of 1,728,503 m2, a production rate of 9.609057 tons, and a productivity of 57.145% Abstrak: Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui model peramalan terbaik dengan metode ARIMA. Data yang digunakan penelitian ini adalah luas panen, produksi dan produktivitas di Provinsi Jawa Timur Tahun 2000-2020. Analisis data yang digunakan adalah metode ARIMA dengan Parameter akurasi yang digunakan yaitu MSE, MAPE, dan MAD. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa (1) tingkat kesalahan metode ARIMA di luas panen, nilai MAD sebesar 1.013.810.484; nilai MSE sebesar 16.484.292.627,223; nilai MAPE sebesar 48,25; (2) tingkat kesalahan metode ARIMA di Produksi, nilai MAD sebesar 5.975.703,193, nilai MSE sebesar 5.886.684.845.403,590, nilai MAPE sebesar 54,60; (3) terakhir kesalahan metode ARIMA di produktivitas, nilai MAD sebesar 14,705, nilai MSE sebesar 39,969, nilai MAPE sebesar 25,62. Hasil simulasi menunjukkan bahwa dari empat model matematika yang menjadi output G-MFS maka model matematika ke-1 menjadi model terbaik dalam menentukan hasil prediksi karena parameter error yang lebih kecil dengan hasil prediksi luas tanam sebesar 1.728.503 m2, tingkat produksi 9.609057 ton, dan produktivitas sebesar 57,145%

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Amount of Poverty as Policy Basis: A Forecasting Using The Holt Method

Cited by 2 publications

References 6 publications

Comparison of Accuracy and Predictive Results of ES-Holt Method and ANN-Back Propagation Method: Case Study of Number of Tourists

Comparison of Accuracy and Predictive Results of ES-Holt Method and ANN-Back Propagation Method: Case Study of Number of Tourists

Prediction of Land Area Harvest, Production, Rice Productivity: A Accuracy Analysis of ARIMA Methods

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