Amplified Madden–Julian oscillation impacts in the Pacific–North America region

Zhou, Wenyu; Yang, Da; Xie, Shang‐Ping; Ma, Jing

doi:10.1038/s41558-020-0814-0

Cited by 50 publications

(63 citation statements)

References 60 publications

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“…This reduction is particularly apparent over the central Pacific. Other studies have noted an increase in the MJO's boreal winter influence near California (Zhou et al, 2020), attributing this to an eastward extension of the Pacific jet. Here, we find a similar strengthening over this region.…”

Section: Mean Statementioning

confidence: 81%

“…Studies exploring the teleconnection change with warming in global climate models are sparse. While Zhou et al (2020) show that a multi-model mean MJO teleconnection change over North America is near-zero, they do not quantify the uncertainty in this projection over this larger region. Their results for the North American west coast, which rely on a subset of the publicly available climate model data (they analyze only those models that produce the most realistic MJOs), hint that while the multi-model mean change over broader North America is small, there may be quite a bit of disagreement between models.…”

mentioning

confidence: 90%

“…However, there is a considerable amount of inter-model spread, much of which is tied to disagreement in future projections of the MJO's diabatic heating and precipitation (Bui and Maloney, 2018;Maloney et al, 2019;Bui and Maloney, 2019a, b). While previous work has attributed a simulated weakening of MJO teleconnections in one model to the increase in dry static stability (Wolding et al, 2017), a recent model intercomparison study has shown that in climate change simulations the MJO's circulation change is not correlated with its teleconnection changes (Zhou et al, 2020).…”

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confidence: 93%

“…Additionally, cloud parameterizations and coarse grid spacing lead to a relatively poor simulation of the MJO in many climate simulations (Ahn et al, 2017). It is thus unclear how the influence of the MJO over much of the extratropics will change in a future warmer climate (Zhou et al, 2020).…”

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confidence: 99%

“…In simulations of a future warmer climate, many models predict an increase in the eastward extent of MJO convection (Adames et al, 2017;Bui and Maloney, 2018;Chang et al, 2015;Subramanian et al, 2014). This may be driven by the expansion of the eastward edge of the Indo-Pacific warm pool, a region of very warm tropical sea surface temperatures (Maloney and Xie, 2013;Zhou et al, 2020). A more eastward propagating MJO will extend the region of Rossby wave excitation by the MJO further eastward as well.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Mechanisms driving MJO teleconnection changes with warming in CMIP6

Jenney¹,

Randall²,

Barnes³

2021

Preprint

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Abstract. Teleconnections from the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) are a key source of predictability of weather on the extended time scale of about 10–40 days. The MJO teleconnection is sensitive to a number of factors, including the mean state dry static stability, the mean flow, and the propagation and intensity characteristics of the MJO itself, which are traditionally difficult to separate across models. Each of these factors may evolve in response to increasing greenhouse gas emissions, which will impact MJO teleconnections and potentially impact potential predictability on extended time scales. Current state-of-the-art climate models do not agree on how MJO teleconnections will change in a future climate. Here, we use results from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) historical and SSP585 experiments in concert with a linear baroclinic model to separate and investigate alternate mechanisms explaining why and how MJO teleconnections over the North Pacific and North America will change in a future climate, and to identify key sources of inter-model uncertainty. We find that decreases to the MJO teleconnection due to increases in tropical dry static stability alone are robust, and that uncertainty in mean state winds are a key driver of uncertainty in future MJO teleconnections. We find no systematic relationship between changes in Rossby wave excitation and the MJO teleconnection. However, we find that models that predict increases (decreases) in the stationary Rossby wave number over the gulf of Alaska also predict stronger (weaker) teleconnections over North America. Uncertainty in future changes to the MJO's intensity, eastward propagation speed, and eastward propagation extent are other important sources of uncertainty in future MJO teleconnections, although to a lesser degree than uncertainty in the mean state. The overall outlook is a reduction of the boreal winter MJO teleconnection across the vast majority of CMIP6 models, especially over the North Pacific, but with some nuance over North America due to larger sensitivity to expansion of the MJO's eastward extent.

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Section: Mean Statementioning

confidence: 81%

mentioning

confidence: 90%

mentioning

confidence: 93%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Mechanisms driving MJO teleconnection changes with warming in CMIP6

Jenney¹,

Randall²,

Barnes³

2021

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

Recent weakening linkage between Arctic oscillation and Aleutian low during boreal winter and its impact on surface temperature over Eastern Eurasia

Hwang

Yeh

et al. 2022

Atmospheric Science Letters

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We investigated interdecadal relationship changes between the Arctic oscillation (AO) and Aleutian low (AL) for the period 1980-2021 along with the linkage on surface air temperature (SAT) over Eastern Eurasia during the boreal winter (December-January-February). The AO-AL relationship has weakened since the mid-1990s. To explore a possible explanation, we compared atmospheric fields for two contrasting periods, one when the AO-AL relationship is the strongest and one when it is the weakest . In both periods, atmospheric circulation over the Arctic region for the two AO-AL inphase relationships (i.e., either +AO/+AL or -AO/ÀAL) evolves with negative AO-like patterns, contributing to a weakening AO-AL relationship in concurrent with a cool SAT in Eastern Eurasia. We found that the correlation between AL and SAT over Eastern Eurasia decreases, while the AO and SAT correlation remains unchanged. This implies that low-frequency atmospheric circulation changes such as those of the AO and AL should be considered when studying SAT changes in Eastern Eurasia.

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Quantifying the influence of the Madden–Julian oscillation on rainfall extremes during the northeast monsoon season of the Philippines

Olaguera,

Manalo,

Bathan

et al. 2024

Atmospheric Science Letters

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This study investigates the impact of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) on the extreme rainfall events across 11 eastern coastal stations during the northeast monsoon season (November to March) over the Philippines from 1979 to 2019. The contribution of synoptic systems to these extreme rainfall events such as tropical cyclones (TCs), low‐pressure systems (LPS), cold surges (CS), and other disturbances as they coincide with a strong and active MJO were quantified. The results show that the probability of extreme rainfall occurrence increases first to as much as 20% in the southernmost stations in Phase 4. Then, it increases to more than 60% in central‐eastern stations in Phase 6. The extreme rainfall events were then classified into: MJO‐only, TC‐MJO, TC‐nonMJO, LPS‐MJO, LPS‐nonMJO, CS‐MJO, CS‐nonMJO, and others. The percentage contribution of MJO only, TC‐MJO, LPS‐MJO, and CS‐MJO to the total extreme rainfall events ranges from 9% to 16%, 0% to 3%, 2% to 4%, 1% to 9%, respectively. The relationship between MJO and flooding events in the Philippines was also examined. About 28 flood events or 266 flooding days were identified during the analysis period, wherein 50% of these events coincidentally occurred during strong and active phases of MJO.

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Amplified Madden–Julian oscillation impacts in the Pacific–North America region

Cited by 50 publications

References 60 publications

Mechanisms driving MJO teleconnection changes with warming in CMIP6

Mechanisms driving MJO teleconnection changes with warming in CMIP6

Recent weakening linkage between Arctic oscillation and Aleutian low during boreal winter and its impact on surface temperature over Eastern Eurasia

Quantifying the influence of the Madden–Julian oscillation on rainfall extremes during the northeast monsoon season of the Philippines

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