Objective: To estimate the incidence of and to characterize cognitive and imaging findings associated with incident amyloid PET positivity.Methods: Cognitively normal (CN) participants in the Mayo Clinic Study of Aging who had 2 or more serial imaging assessments, which included amyloid PET, FDG-PET, and MRI at each time point, were eligible for analysis (n 5 207). Twelve subjects with Alzheimer disease dementia were included for comparison.Results: Of the 123 CN participants who were amyloid-negative at baseline, 26 met criteria for incident amyloid PET positivity. Compared to the 69 subjects who remained stable amyloid-negative, on average these 26 did not differ on any imaging, demographic, or cognitive variables except amyloid PET (by definition) and task-free functional connectivity, which at baseline was greater in the incident amyloid-positive group. Eleven of the 26 incident amyloid-positive subjects had abnormal hippocampal volume, FDG-PET, or both at baseline.
Conclusions:The incidence of amyloid PET positivity is approximately 13% per year among CN participants over age 70 sampled from a population-based cohort. In 15/26 (58%), incident amyloid positivity occurred prior to abnormalities in FDG-PET and hippocampal volume. However, 11/26 (42%) incident amyloid-positive subjects had evidence of neurodegeneration prior to incident amyloid positivity. These 11 could be subjects with combinations of preexisting non-Alzheimer pathophysiologies and tau-mediated neurodegeneration who newly entered the amyloid pathway. Our findings suggest that both "amyloid-first" and "neurodegeneration-first" biomarker profile pathways to preclinical AD exist. Amyloid positivity is associated with higher rates of brain atrophy in cognitively normal (CN) subjects and subjects with mild cognitive impairment (MCI).1,2 CN subjects 3-5 and subjects with MCI 6,7 who are amyloid-positive experience greater cognitive decline than amyloid-negative individuals. Amyloid positivity must therefore be recognized as a pathologic state.Like any quantitative biomarker, amyloid PET values exist on a continuous scale. However, defining incident amyloid positivity requires that a precise normal/abnormal threshold be adopted. Categorizing individual subjects as amyloid-positive or -negative is required to implement new diagnostic criteria for preclinical Alzheimer disease (AD) and to integrate amyloid biomarkers into the new diagnostic criteria for MCI and AD dementia. 8,9 A precise normal/abnormal threshold is also required to define eligibility for some antiamyloid therapeutic trials.
10A popular model of the temporal evolution of AD biomarkers 11,12 proposes that amyloid biomarkers are the first to become abnormal in the pathophysiologic cascade and do so while subjects are still considered CN via neuropsychological and clinical criteria. Thus, characterization of incident amyloid PET positivity should focus on subjects who are CN at baseline. The state of amyloid positivity is clinically important as this defines preclinical AD.9 Ther...