An analysis of the international tourism demand in Spain

Forecasting tourist arrivals using time-varying parameter structural time series models

“…Cycles do not feature in any markets over the observed sample period. This is consistent with most of the tourism demand literature using CSMs, such as the studies of González and Moral (1995) and Kulendran and Witt (2003). It indicates that the key economic determinants included have successfully explained the variation in the tourism demand variable, and therefore it is not necessary to include an additional cyclical component (Moosa, 2000).…”

“…For the shorter term (one to three quarters ahead) the TVP-STSM, CSM, TVP model and BSM, all of which belong to the family of state space models, take the top four positions in the forecasting competition according to the MAPE. The very good short-term forecasting performances of the TVP model, CSM and BSM are in line with the findings of past tourism forecasting studies, such as those of Song and Witt (2000), González and Moral (1995) and Turner and Witt (2001). In particular, the TVP-STSM, CSM and TVP model, all of which incorporate explanatory variables into the model specifications, generate the most accurate one-and two-quarters-ahead forecasts.…”

“…To overcome this limitation, the BSM was developed further to include causal variables in the model specification (known as the causal structural model or CSM). Both the BSM and the CSM have been applied in the tourism demand forecasting context, and several studies have demonstrated their superior forecasting performance relative to other time series alternatives (see for example González & Moral, 1995, 1996Kulendran & King, 1997;Kulendran & Witt, 2001;Turner & Witt, 2001). However, in the studies of both Turner and Witt (2001) and Kulendran and Witt (2003), the CSM produced less accurate forecasts than the BSM.…”

Una panorámica de la Economía del Turismo en España

“…Demanda El análisis de la demanda es, sin duda, el área de investigación que ha sido objeto de mayor atención por parte de los economistas de nuestro país, si bien es cierto que en este caso existe coincidencia con la literatura de expertos internacionales. Ya en la década de los noventas y en el contexto de la escasez de publicaciones españolas mencionado, González y Moral (1995) y (1996 publicaron sendos artículos que han ganado en prestigio con posterioridad en la literatura internacional referida a la modelización de la demanda y los modelos de previsión. Las autoras analizaron la demanda de turismo internacional a España utilizando modelos de series temporales estructurales con componentes no observados espe-cificados de forma estocástica, como el estacional.…”

Culture-led city brands as economic engines: theory and empirics

“…. (González and Moral 1995). An intervention variable, I t , is included in the trend to capture the effect on visitors of the opening of the Guggenheim museum in the last quarter of 1997.…”