An analysis of unmet water demand under climate change scenarios in the Gualí River Basin, Colombia, through the implementation of Hydro-BID and WEAP hydrological modeling tools

Mena, Darwin; Solera, Abel; Restrepo, Lina; Pimiento, Melissa; Cañon, Miguel; Duarte, Freddy Santiago

doi:10.2166/wcc.2019.118

Cited by 13 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 8 publications

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“…Changes in land use can impact runoff and therefore the ows in a watershed. Hydro-BID, through the Customized Parameterization Tool, allows data on land use to be entered in order to parameterize the different key variables established in the software and thus calculate daily runoff (Mena et al, 2019). Data on soil texture characteristics were used after being extracted from the global database of soils from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).…”

Section: Hydro-bid Parameterizationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of Climate Change and Land Use on the Hydrologic Regime Using the Hydro-bid Tool: Andean Mountain Basin Case Study

Mena,

Peña-Guzmán,

Rodríguez-Pinzón

2024

Preprint

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Changes on the land surface from human activities or natural events generate changes in land cover, which directly effect water availability and quality in watersheds. This article evaluates the effects on the hydrological regime Andean Mountain basin case study on the Coello river basin in Colombia due to changes in land use/land cover during the 2000–2019 period by the use of the Hydro-Bid tool. The physical analysis of the land surface included the processing of Landsat 7 ETM and Landsat 8 OLI satellite images for the years 2001, 2003, 2015 and 2019. Seven types of coverage were determined based on these data using the Mixed Gaussian Method that is part of the dzetsaka plugin in QGIS. The changes between each year were evaluated, after which the land use/land cover change for the year 2050 was predicted using a Markov chain in the TerrSet software package. The multitemporal analysis showed a decrease in forested areas during the studied period, while low vegetation significantly increased within the watershed. This trend was shown to continue in the future scenario for the year 2050, where the predicted losses in forest cover were estimated at 135 km2 with an increase in flow on the watershed of 59.6%. Additionally, the climate change scenarios were modeled with the changes in land use. The combined effects (climate change + land use) established a progressive decrease in the modal flow. The results from this study will allow authorities to improve decision-making in land use planning and climate change adaptation. However, uncertainties associated with data availability and modelling performance must be taken into account when applying the presented results.

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Section: Hydro-bid Parameterizationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of Climate Change and Land Use on the Hydrologic Regime Using the Hydro-bid Tool: Andean Mountain Basin Case Study

Mena,

Peña-Guzmán,

Rodríguez-Pinzón

2024

Preprint

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“…In this one, HydroBID was employed as a tool that enabled fundamental hydrological modeling, which was subsequently used in other models such as WEAP. For this purpose, rainfall stations around the study basin were utilized [28]. Most of them focused on climate change scenarios analysis, but none of them explored the merit of the precipitation pattern utilizing satellite-based products.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Implementation of HydroBID Model with Satellite-Based Precipitation Products in Guadalquivir Basin, Bolivia

Saavedra,

Ureña,

Perales

2023

Water

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The use of distributed precipitation data in hydrological models is critically important to simulate processes at a micro-basin scale. However, aerial precipitation at a high resolution is required to run these models. This study aimed to set up the HydroBID tool in the Guadalquivir River basin using satellite-based precipitation products. The employed products included GSMaP gauge version 6, interpolated rain gauges using Kriging, the combined GS product for Bolivia, and the proposed combined product for the Guadalquivir basin. The GS Guadalquivir was generated by combining the satellite-based product GSMaP gauge version 6 with the local rain gauge network. The main difference with GS Bolivia is the improvement of the resolution from 5 km to 250 m. An iteration scheme using 230 micro-basins was employed, reaching a correlation of 0.98 compared to the control dataset. By using the hydrological model with the precipitation products, the daily river discharge was obtained, showing a high correlation of 0.99 and efficiency of 0.96 in relation to observed data between 2000 and 2016 at Obrajes station. Simulated flows with Kriging and GS Guadalquivir products presented similarly high correlations compared to the observed flows. In the case of GSMaP and GS Bolivia, these products showed general underestimations of the simulated flows, reaching correlations between 0.28 and 0.91, respectively. Moreover, annual volumes were analyzed, where the overestimation of GSMaP, Kriging, and GS Guadalquivir showed similar characteristics concerning the distribution of specific river discharges and volumes. Therefore, HydroBID appeared to be a feasible tool with enough adaptability to use distributed precipitation and simulate flows at a micro-basin scale. Therefore, we recommend applying this scheme to other basins to carry out analysis of events, water balance, and floods and similar studies.

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“…They reported that the water unmet demand would be increasing by 2060s to 51.5% where this shortage would be more severe in irrigation among the others. Mena et al [12] studied the potential impacts of climate changes on unsatisfied demand for water in the Guila river basin in Colombia over the period 2011-2100 using the Hydro-BID modeling tool along with the WEAP. They found that the studied climate change affecting the hydrological services in Andean basins, so the reduction in the water supply can lead to unmeet water for different users.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling of Future Water Use Scenarios Using WEAP Model: A Case Study in Baghdad City, Iraq

Al-Mukhtar¹,

Mutar²

2021

ETJ

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Iraq is one of the Middle East countries that suffer from water scarcity. In addition to the water policy of the upstream riparian countries; rapid population increase, economic growth, and climate changes are the major stressors of water resources available for domestic and agricultural sectors in this country. Therefore, it is of importance to determine the optimal water management methodology. This study aims to identify the optimal water allocation among the domestic, agricultural, and industrial sectors of Baghdad city under present and potential future scenarios. As such, the WEAP model was used to assess and analyze the current and projected balance of water resource management. The model was firstly calibrated and validated using the monthly streamflow data at Sarai station on the Tigris River. Subsequently, the calibrated model was fed with different future scenarios over the period 2020-2040. The employed future scenarios included normal growth population rate (I), high growth population rate (II), halved river discharges (III), combined scenario of the high population with halved water flow (ΙV) and the simulated future water year type scenario (V). Results proved that the WEAP model satisfactorily modeled the water supply/demand in Baghdad with R2 and Pbias of 0.73 and 2.43%, respectively during the validation period. Also, it was found that the water demand and supply were unmet under all proposed future scenarios which implies that there is a swift need for sustainable water management in Iraq and in Baghdad.

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An analysis of unmet water demand under climate change scenarios in the Gualí River Basin, Colombia, through the implementation of Hydro-BID and WEAP hydrological modeling tools

Cited by 13 publications

References 8 publications

Effects of Climate Change and Land Use on the Hydrologic Regime Using the Hydro-bid Tool: Andean Mountain Basin Case Study

Effects of Climate Change and Land Use on the Hydrologic Regime Using the Hydro-bid Tool: Andean Mountain Basin Case Study

Implementation of HydroBID Model with Satellite-Based Precipitation Products in Guadalquivir Basin, Bolivia

Modelling of Future Water Use Scenarios Using WEAP Model: A Case Study in Baghdad City, Iraq

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