Modelling of Future Water Use Scenarios Using WEAP Model: A Case Study in Baghdad City, Iraq

Abstract

Iraq is one of the Middle East countries that suffer from water scarcity. In addition to the water policy of the upstream riparian countries; rapid population increase, economic growth, and climate changes are the major stressors of water resources available for domestic and agricultural sectors in this country. Therefore, it is of importance to determine the optimal water management methodology. This study aims to identify the optimal water allocation among the domestic, agricultural, and industrial sectors of Baghdad city under present and potential future scenarios. As such, the WEAP model was used to assess and analyze the current and projected balance of water resource management. The model was firstly calibrated and validated using the monthly streamflow data at Sarai station on the Tigris River. Subsequently, the calibrated model was fed with different future scenarios over the period 2020-2040. The employed future scenarios included normal growth population rate (I), high growth population rate (II), halved river discharges (III), combined scenario of the high population with halved water flow (ΙV) and the simulated future water year type scenario (V). Results proved that the WEAP model satisfactorily modeled the water supply/demand in Baghdad with R2 and Pbias of 0.73 and 2.43%, respectively during the validation period. Also, it was found that the water demand and supply were unmet under all proposed future scenarios which implies that there is a swift need for sustainable water management in Iraq and in Baghdad.

Implementing Management Practices for Enhancing Water-Food Nexus Under Climate Change

“…There should be enough water available until 2045 in the great scenario. Similar results were recorded by Mukhtar & Mutar [57] in Baghdad City, Iraq. The investigation aimed to examine integrated urban water management under many different scenarios.…”

Forest Fires, Land Use Changes and Their Impact on Hydrological Balance in Temperate Forests of Central Mexico

“…Asghar et al [71] calibrated their model with an NSE and R2 of 0.85 and 0.86, respectively. Al-Mukhtar and Mutar [72] reported values of R2 and PBIAS during the calibration of 0.70 and 2.52%, respectively. Nevárez et al [73] obtained values of 0.84, 0.73, and −15.92 for the R2, NSE, and PBIAS estimators, respectively.…”

Geospatial Analysis of Land Use/Cover Change and Land Surface Temperature for Landscape Risk Pattern Change Evaluation of Baghdad City, Iraq, Using CA–Markov and ANN Models

“…Baghdad (the capital of Iraq) has been selected as the study area. There are 12 districts across the city limits in the northeast, namely Khalis, Baqubah, Al Wajihiya, and Dejail in the northwest [38]. Tarmiyah, Hosseinia, and Taji are in the north, Abu Ghraib and Jisr Diyala are in the southwest and east, Mahmudiyah and Madain are in the southeast, and Ad Dulaimiya and Al Falluja are in the western districts of Baghdad [38], as shown in Figure 1.…”

“…There are 12 districts across the city limits in the northeast, namely Khalis, Baqubah, Al Wajihiya, and Dejail in the northwest [38]. Tarmiyah, Hosseinia, and Taji are in the north, Abu Ghraib and Jisr Diyala are in the southwest and east, Mahmudiyah and Madain are in the southeast, and Ad Dulaimiya and Al Falluja are in the western districts of Baghdad [38], as shown in Figure 1. Baghdad has a population density of 931.4 people per km 2 , with a total area of 7669.69 km 2 and a variety of land uses.…”