An appropriate general circulation model (GCM) to investigate climate change impact

Farzaneh, Mohammad Reza; Eslamian, Saeid; Phillips, R. C.; Akbarpour, Abolfazl

doi:10.1504/ijhst.2012.045938

Cited by 15 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 0 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…The area is bordered to the North by Obio/Akpor Local Government area, to the South by Okrika, to the East by Eleme and to the West by Degema Tour Local Government Areas [20] and [21]. In terms of drainage, the area is drained by Bonny…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

The Minimum and Maximum Temperature Forecast Using Statistical Downscaling Techniques for Port-Harcourt Metropolis, Nigeria

Weli¹,

Nwagbara²,

Ozabor³

2017

ACS

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This study centers on applying the statistical downscaling technique to the daily minimum and maximum temperatures of Port Harcourt from the period 1985-2014. To select the period of calibration, the wilby and wigley assumption of 2014 was adopted. However, the Bruckner circle assumption was adopted in selecting the normal under review. Secondary data of minimum and maximum temperatures for Port Harcourt were collected from the archive of Nigerian meteorological agency (NIMET). The grid cell of the HadCM3 corresponding to the Port Harcourt meteorological station was selected from the HadCM3 website to generate the largescale predictors. Data for temperature was there after normalized for the period of calibration. To analyze data, ANOVA and Paired t tests were used. Result showed that, the model was significant at p < 0.05 implying that the largescale predictors of the HadCM3 have performed significantly and that temperature pattern in the area is significantly dependent on them. The Duncan statistics showed that in the A2 scenario Maximum temperature will rise with a mean difference of 3.1˚C from 1960-2080, while for B2 the increase will be 0.18˚C for same period. For minimum temperature, the ANOVA also showed a difference of 0.21˚C and 0.11˚C for A2 and B2 respectively. The paired t test statistics showed that these variations in temperatures for both maximum and minimum at A2 and B2 scenarios are significant at p < 0.05. Reforestation, afforestation, carbon sequestration are strongly advocated.

show abstract

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The weather of the area among other local forcing is influenced by mT and cT airmasses [24]. [25], by using the growth rate of 5.8%, the population is projected to be 2,085,204 in 2015 [20].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Minimum and Maximum Temperature Forecast Using Statistical Downscaling Techniques for Port-Harcourt Metropolis, Nigeria

Weli¹,

Nwagbara²,

Ozabor³

2017

ACS

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The ninth row shows that when the precipitation and temperature data was not inserted, the average of mean discharge of the period decreased and the error was 70.06 percent. In the eleventh row, by omission of the solar radiation and wind speed data, the average calculated discharge showed an error of 16.72 percent [99][100][101][102][103][104][105][106][107][108][109][110][111][112][113][114][115].…”

Section: Running the Model Considering Other Metrological Parametersmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Study on the Effects of Earth Surface and Metrological Parameters on River Discharge Modeling Using SWAT Model, Case Study: Kasillian Basin, Mazandaran Province, Iran

2017

International Journal of Constructive Research in Civil Enginee

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

“…The mathematical models that are referred to as general circulation models (GCMs) are widely used in climate‐change studies to simulate the current and project the future climate (Farzaneh et al ., ). Using appropriate downscaling approaches can make climate‐change investigations possible and more reliable as the spatial resolutions of GCM outputs are quite coarse (Kabiri et al ., ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

“…Literature reviews associated with climate change assessment are voluminous (Van Liew et al ., ; Farzaneh et al ., ; Etemadi et al ., ; Kabiri et al ., ), and emphasize that climate change will have significant impacts on local hydrological conditions which in turn will influence social, ecological and political systems (Shamsudin et al ., ). These results are uncertain due to the variability of temperature and abnormal precipitation in different spatial and temporal scales (Vardoulakis et al ., ; Nkomozepi and Chung, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Downscaling the contribution to uncertainty in climate‐change assessments: representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios for the South Alborz Range, Iran

Mirdashtvan

Najafinejad

Malekian

et al. 2017

Meteorological Applications

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

One of the most important stages in climate-change-impact studies is uncertainty analysis, due to its great effect on both predictions and decision-making. This study presents a procedure that characterizes the changes of climatic variables for the period 2011-2040 under representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios and then quantifies the uncertainty linked with the downscaling process using a bootstrapping method at 95% confidence intervals in one of the most vulnerable basins, the "Karaj-Jajrud" located in the South Alborz Range, Iran. The results show that there is a consistent warming in mean air temperature time-series with different magnitudes for all the RCP scenarios in the region for 2011-2040, whereas the results indicate decreasing precipitation compared with the baseline period for all RCP scenarios in the study area. Analysing the impacts of the downscaling process uncertainty on the prediction results shows that the contribution of this uncertainty source to the prediction uncertainty is relatively high, as about 30% of the downscaled temperature and precipitation data fall inside the 95% simulation confidence intervals. Furthermore, precipitation-series uncertainty is more than the air temperature series. Climate change assessments and their uncertainty analysis can help managers to enhance preparedness and adaptation strategies in order to mitigate the consequences of natural hazards. More investigations can be done by adopting more general circulation models and other downscaling methods to compare the uncertainty that arises from each uncertainty source.

show abstract

An appropriate general circulation model (GCM) to investigate climate change impact

Cited by 15 publications

References 0 publications

The Minimum and Maximum Temperature Forecast Using Statistical Downscaling Techniques for Port-Harcourt Metropolis, Nigeria

The Minimum and Maximum Temperature Forecast Using Statistical Downscaling Techniques for Port-Harcourt Metropolis, Nigeria

A Study on the Effects of Earth Surface and Metrological Parameters on River Discharge Modeling Using SWAT Model, Case Study: Kasillian Basin, Mazandaran Province, Iran

Downscaling the contribution to uncertainty in climate‐change assessments: representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios for the South Alborz Range, Iran

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About