An assessment of the extremes and impacts of the February 2021 South-Central U.S. Arctic outbreak, and how climate services can help

Bolinger, Rebecca A.; Brown, Vincent M.; Fuhrmann, Christopher M.; Gleason, Karin; Joyner, T. Andrew; Keim, Barry D.; Lewis, Amanda B.; Nielsen‐Gammon, John W.; Stiles, Crystal J.; Tollefson, William; Attard, Hannah E.; Bentley, Alicia M.

doi:10.1016/j.wace.2022.100461

Cited by 15 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…Ensemble members from both the ECMWF and NCEP models which correctly simulate these two wave breaks later simulate anomalous cold in the Great Plains in comparison to those ensemble members which do not, at a ∼3‐week lead time (Figures 4 and 5). These findings link with recent studies that suggested the February 2021 CAO was a result of tropospheric variability (Bolinger et al., 2022; Davis et al., 2022; Zhang et al., 2022). The analysis of the Rossby wave breaking events preceding the February 2021 event also demonstrates their links to persistent anomalous ridges over the East Siberian Sea and northern Canada/Greenland (Masato et al., 2012; Pelly & Hoskins, 2003).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 89%

“…Significant attention has been given to the role of the stratospheric polar vortex in the February 2021 CAO, given that a major sudden stratospheric warming occurred around 1 month prior (Lee, 2021). However, recent studies concluded that the stratosphere had a minimal direct role in the February 2021 CAO; rather, tropospheric variability may have been more important in its evolution (Bolinger et al., 2022; Davis et al., 2022; Zhang et al., 2022).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Role of Wave Breaking in the Development and Subseasonal Forecasts of the February 2021 Great Plains Cold Air Outbreak

Millin

Furtado

2022

Geophysical Research Letters

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The February 2021 Great Plains cold air outbreak (CAO) was a high-impact weather event involving numerous power outages, traffic incidents, widespread winter storm warnings, and various cold-related fatalities (BBC News, 2021;NWS, 2021a). Texas was impacted particularly hard due to the failures of power generation, natural gas supply, and water infrastructure (Doss-Goslin et al., 2021). Based on certain metrics, this event was the second most severe Great Plains CAO since 1950(Millin et al., 2022. Given the high degree of severity, there is great importance in understanding potential sources of atmospheric predictability in both observations and models that could improve forecasts of such events on the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) timescale (i.e., 2-8 weeks; e.g., Vitart & Robertson, 2018).The stratospheric polar vortex, which is the boreal wintertime cyclonic circulation 10-50 km high in the atmosphere near the North Pole, has links to Northern Hemisphere CAO development. If vertically propagating planetary-scale waves break in the stratosphere, the stratospheric polar vortex will weaken and warm; if the westerly circulation reverses then a major sudden stratospheric warming occurs (

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 89%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Role of Wave Breaking in the Development and Subseasonal Forecasts of the February 2021 Great Plains Cold Air Outbreak

Millin

Furtado

2022

Geophysical Research Letters

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“…As global warming is expected to reduce the frequency of severe cold spells, the causes of recent winter cold extremes in the Northern Hemisphere have attracted much public attention and scientific debate 1 – 6 . Notably, the exceptional North American cold wave in February 2021 was suggested to be related to the sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) in January 2021 7 , 8 , which was further proposed to be linked to Arctic sea ice loss under global warming 3 , 4 .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Extreme stratospheric wave activity as harbingers of cold events over North America

Ding

Chen

Zhang

et al. 2023

Commun Earth Environ

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Extreme cold events over North America such as the February 2021 cold wave have been suggested to be linked to stratospheric polar vortex stretching. However, it is not resolved how robustly and on which timescales the stratosphere contributes to the surface anomalies. Here we introduce a simple measure of stratospheric wave activity for reanalyses and model outputs. In contrast to the well-known surface influences of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) that increase the intraseasonal persistence of weather regimes, we show that extreme stratospheric wave events are accompanied by intraseasonal fluctuations between warm and cold spells over North America in observations and climate models. Particularly, strong stratospheric wave events are followed by an increased risk of cold extremes over North America 5–25 days later. Idealized simulations in an atmospheric model with a well-resolved stratosphere corroborate that strong stratospheric wave activity precedes North American cold spells through vertical wave coupling. These findings potentially benefit the predictability of high-impact winter cold extremes over North America.

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“…Concurrently, stronger than normal winds were observed including over parts of SERC and WECC and weaker winds were observed over NPCC (figure 3(j)). However, these negative anomalies over NPCC are not typical during cold extremes and are likely due to the winter storm's extreme southward extent (Bolinger et al 2022). Typically, positive median wind anomalies in this region during widespread cold extremes (figure 3(c)) are likely because the region generally lies at the leading edge of cold air outbreaks that are most often centered around central US.…”

Section: Solar and Wind Energy Potentialmentioning

confidence: 97%

Enhanced solar and wind potential during widespread temperature extremes across the U.S. interconnected energy grids

Singh,

Bekris,

Rogers

et al. 2024

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Several recent widespread temperature extremes across the United States have been associated with power outages, disrupting access to electricity at times that are critical for the health and well-being of communities. Building resilience into the energy infrastructure to such extremes needs a comprehensive understanding of their spatial and temporal characteristics. In this study, we systematically quantify the frequency, extent, duration and intensity of widespread temperature extremes and their associated energy demand in the six North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) regions using ERA5 reanalysis data. We show that every region has experienced hot or cold extremes that affected nearly their entire extent, imposing simultaneous stresses on the system, and such events are associated with substantially higher energy demand. The western U.S. experienced significant increases in the frequency (123%), extent (32%), duration (55%) and intensity (29%) for hot extremes and Texas experienced significant increases in the frequency (132%) of hot extremes. The frequency of cold extremes is decreasing across most regions without substantial changes in other characteristics. Using power outage data, we show that recent widespread extremes in nearly every region have coincided with power outages, and such outages account for between 12-52% of all weather-related outages in the past decade depending on the region. Importantly, we find that solar potential is significantly higher during widespread hot extremes in all six regions and during widespread cold extremes in five of the six regions. Further, wind potential is significantly higher during widespread hot or cold extremes in at least three regions. Our findings indicate that increased solar and wind capacity could be leveraged to meet the higher energy demand during such widespread extremes, improving the resilience and reliability of our energy systems in addition to limiting carbon emissions.

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An assessment of the extremes and impacts of the February 2021 South-Central U.S. Arctic outbreak, and how climate services can help

Cited by 15 publications

References 26 publications

The Role of Wave Breaking in the Development and Subseasonal Forecasts of the February 2021 Great Plains Cold Air Outbreak

The Role of Wave Breaking in the Development and Subseasonal Forecasts of the February 2021 Great Plains Cold Air Outbreak

Extreme stratospheric wave activity as harbingers of cold events over North America

Enhanced solar and wind potential during widespread temperature extremes across the U.S. interconnected energy grids

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