An Assessment of the Filling Process of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and Its Impact on the Downstream Countries

Abstract

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), formerly known as the Millennium Dam, has been filling at a fast rate. This project has created issues for the Nile Basin countries of Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia. The filling of GERD has an impact on the Nile Basin hydrology and specifically the water storages (lakes/reservoirs) and flow downstream. In this study, through the analysis of multi-source satellite imagery, we study the filling of the GERD reservoir. The time-series generated using Sentinel-1 SAR imagery displays the number of classified water pixels in the dam from early June 2017 to September 2020, indicating a contrasting trend in August and September 2020 for the upstream/downstream water bodies: upstream of the dam rises steeply, while downstream decreases. Our time-series analysis also shows the average monthly precipitation (derived using IMERG) in the Blue Nile Basin in Ethiopia has received an abnormally high amount of rainfall as well as a high amount of runoff (analyzed using GLDAS output). Simultaneously, the study also demonstrates the drying trend downstream at Lake Nasser in Southern Egypt before December 2020. From our results, we estimate that the volume of water at GERD has already increased by 3.584 billion cubic meters, which accounts for about 5.3% of its planned capacity (67.37 billion cubic meters) from 9 July–30 November 2020. Finally, we observed an increasing trend in GRACE anomalies for GERD, whereas, for the Lake Nasser, we observed a decreasing trend. In addition, our study discusses potential interactions between GERD and the rainfall and resulting flood in Sudan. Our study suggests that attention should be drawn to the connection between the GERD filling and potential drought in the downstream countries during the upcoming dry spells in the Blue Nile River Basin. This study provides an open-source technique using Google Earth Engine (GEE) to monitor the changes in water level during the filling of the GERD reservoir. GEE proves to be a powerful as well as an efficient way of analyzing computationally intensive SAR images.

Assessing the Vertical Displacement of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam during its Filling using DInSAR technology and its Potential Acute Consequences on the Downstream Countries

“…The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) located on the Blue Nile River in Ethiopia, promises a massive reservoir, which has been expanding according to a series of satellite images, with a spatial extent of about 1763.3 km 2 and capacity of more than 70 billion cubic meters of water [1,2]. The filling process and its implications on the downstream river hydrology has been recently monitored using Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) and Sentinel-2 optical imagery [3]. It is expected that the GERD filling and operation, without a full agreement between Ethiopia and, Sudan and Egypt, would not only pose a direct danger on the water, food, and energy nexus in Egypt, but also would be a major direct threat to Sudan and Egypt in case of any possible failure [4].…”

Assessing the Vertical Displacement of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam during Its Filling Using DInSAR Technology and Its Potential Acute Consequences on the Downstream Countries

“…Figure 1c shows the Main and the Saddle Dams along with the left and right banks. (a,b) are adopted from [3] with permission.…”

“…The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) located on the Blue Nile River in Ethiopia, promises a massive reservoir, which has been expanding according to a series of satellite images, with a spatial extent of about 1763.3 km 2 and capacity of more than 70 billion cubic meters of water [1,2]. The filling process and its implications on the downstream river hydrology have been recently monitored using Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) and Sentinel-2 optical imagery [3]. It is expected that the GERD filling and operation, without a full agreement between Ethiopia and, Sudan and Egypt, would not only pose a direct danger on the water, food, and energy nexus in Egypt, but also would be a major direct threat to Sudan and Egypt in case of any possible failure [4].…”

Comprehensive Assessment for the Potential Environmental Impacts of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Downstream Countries: Itaipu Dam in the Rearview Mirror

“…The latest negotiations between Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia that was halted for reaching a dead end in July 2020, which is around the period of filling the dam lake for the first year with 5 BCM (U.S. Department of the Treasury, 2020). Although, Egypt and Sudan are expected to face water scarcity challenges during the filling period (Abdeldayem et al, 2020), Ethiopia has continued their individual actions without reaching an abiding agreement with the downstream countries and filled the dam for the second year with around 2-3 BCM (Kansara et al, 2021) which empowers the downstream countries situation when Egypt jointly with Sudan took the GERD dispute file to the United Nation Security Council and shows how the situation is a matter of live for the downstream countries and how the Egypt and Sudan are concerned about such an individual action. Because decreasing the filling years means more reduction of the flow arriving to Sudan and Egypt (Abtew & Dessu, 2019;Borowski, 2020;Madson & Sheng, 2021).…”

“…The initial purpose of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is to produce from 5 to 6.4 GW hydroelectric power based on different designs (Kansara et al, 2021;Siddig et al, 2020). The latest negotiations between Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia that was halted for reaching a dead end in July 2020, which is around the period of filling the dam lake for the first year with 5 BCM (U.S. Department of the Treasury, 2020).…”