An attempt to validate HF propagation prediction conditions over Sub‐Saharan Africa

Abstract

[1] Ionospheric behavior plays an important role in high-frequency (HF) radio propagation, which subsequently provides an opportunity for studying ionospheric variability and space weather effects. The continuous change in ionospheric conditions caused by space weather strongly affects HF propagation. The use of HF communication is still very relevant over the African continent, as seen by the requirements for services provided by the Regional Warning Center for Space Weather in Africa, and this has necessitated an investigation into the prediction capabilities of the existing HF propagation models currently used over this region. This paper presents the validation of HF propagation conditions through the ionosphere by using the Ionospheric Communication Enhanced Profile Analysis and Circuit (ICEPAC) model with real-time data from international beacons located in Africa. The HF propagation results presented are for the circuits Ruaraka

Comparison of observed and predicted MUF(3000)F2 in the polar cap region

“…Stocker et al [] compared measurements and VOACAP predictions of HF propagation parameters for paths along the midlatitude trough and within the polar cap and found that signal strength was underestimated by VOACAP in the presence of off–great circle propagation. Similar studies have been done in the midlatitudes [e.g., McNamara et al , ; Zolesi et al , ; Pietrella et al , ; Tshisaphungo et al , ]. Efforts to explore the polar region have been limited by inadequate data, where most of the available ionospheric communication studies in the polar region have used limited data, mostly acquired in the 1960s–1970s.…”

“…In Figure 5a (middle), VOACAP performs well except during winter in 2009 and August 2012. Figure 5a (bottom), REC533 performs well during winter and equinox months except during the summers of 2011, 2012. REC533 shows poor performance in May, July 2009and April 2009, 2011, 2012 At Pond Inlet (Figure 5b), ICEPAC still performs poorly during low solar activity except in March and September 2010.…”

“…Figure 5a (bottom), REC533 performs well during winter and equinox months except during the summers of 2011, 2012. REC533 shows poor performance in May, July 2009and April 2009, 2011, 2012 At Pond Inlet (Figure 5b), ICEPAC still performs poorly during low solar activity except in March and September 2010. ICEPAC performance gets better as solar activity increases with exceptions of January, November, and December 2012 and April, August, and November 2013.…”

“…Data analysis at Resolute covers 2009Resolute covers , 2011Resolute covers , 2012Resolute covers , and 2013, while that at Pond Inlet covers the same period except that 2011 is replaced by 2010 due to the availability of scaled data. The performance of the long-term models was characterized using the root-mean-square error (RMSE) [Zolesi et al, 2008;Tshisaphungo et al, 2011].…”

Absence of High Frequency Echoes From Ionosondes During the 23–25 April 2023 Geomagnetic Storm; What Happened?

“…The practical implication of this scenario is that it may have been impossible to use the F2 region for HF communications during this time period. Over time, HF has played a vital role for long distance communication in the African continent within several sectors such as disaster management and relief, aviation and defence/security (e.g., Tshisaphungo et al, 2011). For example, during attention in response to the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) recommendation to have access to this form of communication (where possible) for civil aviation purposes (ICAO, 2018, Manual on Space Weather).…”