An Economic Analysis of China’s Domestic Crude Oil Supply Policies

Rioux, Bertrand; Galkin, Philipp; Kang, Wei

doi:10.30573/ks--2019-dp60

Cited by 4 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 3 publications

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“…While International trade networks and single commodity global trade networks have received significant attention [56,26,57,1,29,58], the single commodity interstate trade network is rarely focused [59,60,61,62]. Understanding the evolution of interstate trade networks of multiple commodities can help us gain insights on nation's self-sufficiency and identification of hubs that are the most critical to sustain the supply chain.…”

Section: Discussion and Concluding Remarksmentioning

confidence: 99%

On the evolution of agricultural and non-agricultural produce flow network in India

Kulkarni¹,

Dave²,

Bhatia³

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Rising economic instability and continuous evolution in international relations demand a self-reliant trade and commodity flow networks at regional scales to efficiently address the growing human needs of a nation. Despite its importance in securing India's food security, the potential advantages of inland trade remain unexplored. Here we perform a comprehensive analysis of agricultural flows and contrast it with non-agricultural commodities flow across Indian states. The spatiotemporal evolution of both the networks for the period 2010 to 2018 was studied and compared using network properties along with the total traded value. Our results show an increase in annual traded volume by nearly 37% and 87%, respectively, for agriculture and non-agriculture trade. An increase in total trade volume without a significant increase in connectivity over the analysed time period is observed in both networks, reveals the over-reliance and increased dependency on particular export hubs. Our analysis further revealed a more homogeneous distribution between import and export connection nodes for agriculture trade compared to non-agriculture trade, where Indian states with high exports also have high imports. Overall our analysis provides a quantitative description of Indian inland trade as a complex network that could further us design resilient trade networks within the nation.

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Section: Discussion and Concluding Remarksmentioning

confidence: 99%

On the evolution of agricultural and non-agricultural produce flow network in India

Kulkarni¹,

Dave²,

Bhatia³

et al. 2022

Preprint

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show abstract

“…More comprehensive models, usually derived from energy system models, e.g., Rioux et al (2019), (EIA 2017), can provide a broader perspective on energy import security and its interactions with domestic energy systems and global fuel markets. This approach, however, is quite resource-intensive and less suited to analyzing short-run impacts, such as those caused by price fluctuations, due to an aggregated representation and long iteration steps.…”

Section: Balancing Energy Security Priorities: a Portfolio Optimizatimentioning

confidence: 99%

Balancing Energy Security Priorities: A Portfolio Optimization Approach to Oil Imports.

Galkin¹,

Bolino²,

Bigerna³

2019

Self Cite

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his study applies financial portfolio theory to the energy security issues of East Asia's major energy importers: China, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. We calculate the relative risks associated with the dynamics of oil imports, and the import prices paid, and estimate the efficient frontiers for corresponding import portfolios. Last, we run several scenarios which simulate the effects of restructuring oil import portfolios and external disruptions. We find that: The composition of oil import portfolios determines varying risk levels for given oil import growth rates and average import prices (see Figure 1), pointing to different energy security priorities for the economies studied. Increasing the share of oil imports originating from Saudi Arabia would improve the portfolio performance of China, but result in higher portfolio volatility for the other importers. The short-run impact of a fully enforced Iranian oil export embargo would increase portfolio risk across the board within a 3% to 15% range. However, the subsequent substitution of Iranian oil imports by other suppliers would prove beneficial for Japan and Taiwan. The risk premium associated with passing through the Malacca Straits, 10% of the price of the cargo, would result in a 27.5% increase in price volatility for China's oil imports. The negative impact on its average import price level, however, would be less pronounced-at 2.6% compared with a range of between 5.2% to 5.8% for the other importers.

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“…2,3 However, energy security is a complex and multi-faceted phenomenon, with several definitions considering various aspects of energy. 4,5 This study employs a narrow definition of energy security, following Winzer's 6 recommendation, referring to a continuous supply of energy commodities at stable prices. More specifically, this study focuses on oil, considering its importance to the modern economy.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

How political conflicts threaten energy security and economic growth in Asia: A study on the sanctions imposed on Iran

Wei

Cui

Heng

2021

Energy & Environment

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Given their high dependence on energy imports, Asian countries’ energy security is challenged by international political conflicts that interfere with the global energy supply. This study examines the impacts of the sanctions imposed on Iran on the energy security and economic growth of oil-importing Asian countries. A global computable equilibrium model is applied, and three illustrative scenarios are developed to simulate a full embargo on Iran's oil exports, the utilization of spare oil production capacity of other Persian Gulf countries, and a reduction of their oil exports. The impacts of a full embargo are not disastrous if oil exports from other Persian Gulf petrostates are secured. The utilization of spare oil production capacity could largely buffer the impacts on Asian countries’ oil prices than oil supply. Under a pessimistic scenario, the oil supply of Asian countries would be disastrously disturbed. Moreover, political conflicts would force Asian countries to struggle for oil import sources, straining their relations and causing intense international competition.

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An Economic Analysis of China’s Domestic Crude Oil Supply Policies

Cited by 4 publications

References 3 publications

On the evolution of agricultural and non-agricultural produce flow network in India

On the evolution of agricultural and non-agricultural produce flow network in India

Balancing Energy Security Priorities: A Portfolio Optimization Approach to Oil Imports.

How political conflicts threaten energy security and economic growth in Asia: A study on the sanctions imposed on Iran

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