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PurposeThis paper aims to explore the future path of agricultural development in China toward 2060 under the dual carbon goals, so as to inform better policy choices for facilitating agricultural and rural transformation toward the goal of maintaining food security, sustainable income growth and low carbon emission.Design/methodology/approachThis study employs a single-country, multi-sectoral computable general equilibrium model, CHINAGEM model and develops eight illustrative scenarios to simulate the impacts of attaining dual carbon goals on agricultural development in China. Additional two scenarios have also been designed to inform better policy making with the aim to offset the negative impact of the decarbonization schemes through facilitating agricultural technology progress.FindingsDual carbon goals are projected to impose substantial negative impact on agricultural productions and consumptions in China in the coming four decades. Under the assumption of business as usual, agricultural production will reduce by 0.49–8.94% along with the attainment of carbon neutrality goal by 2060, with the production of cereals and high-value being more severely damaged. To mitigate the adverse impact of the decarbonization schemes, it is believed that fastening technology progress in agriculture is one of the most efficient ways for maintaining domestic food security without harming the dual carbon goals. In particular, if agricultural productivity (particularly, for cereals and high-value products) can be increased by another 1% per year, the production losses caused by carbon emission mitigation will be fully offset. This implies that promoting technology progress is still the best way to facilitate agricultural development and rural transformation in future China.Originality/valueThe paper contributes to the literature in better informing the impact of dual carbon goals on China's agriculture and the effectiveness of technology progress in agriculture on buffering the adverse impact of the decarbonization schemes and promoting agricultural development.

Shocks to international trade conditions, such as imposing tariffs, not only affects the global economy but also has substantial implications for carbon emissions. However, it is unclear whether the impact of changes in trade on carbon emissions will be consistent or change over time, as both trade patterns and emission intensity are dynamic in nature. Here, we simulated the economy and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in four representative years from 2004 to 2014 under a free trade scenario and a trade restriction scenario. Our simulations show that trade restrictions would have decreased global emissions by 6.0%, 5.7%, 5.2%, and 4.7% in 2004, 2007, 2011 and 2014; however, restrictions also drove a relative increase in emission intensity for all years. Although more pressure to emit was placed on developing regions with trade development over the study period, the impacts of trade restrictions on CO2 emissions weakened due to an absolute decrease in emission intensity across regions over time, especially for developing regions. Enabling continued improvements in emission intensity in developing regions by enhancing financial assistance, knowledge sharing, and technology exchange with trade is therefore critical to ensure win-win situations for both economic development and global carbon mitigation.

Given their high dependence on energy imports, Asian countries’ energy security is challenged by international political conflicts that interfere with the global energy supply. This study examines the impacts of the sanctions imposed on Iran on the energy security and economic growth of oil-importing Asian countries. A global computable equilibrium model is applied, and three illustrative scenarios are developed to simulate a full embargo on Iran's oil exports, the utilization of spare oil production capacity of other Persian Gulf countries, and a reduction of their oil exports. The impacts of a full embargo are not disastrous if oil exports from other Persian Gulf petrostates are secured. The utilization of spare oil production capacity could largely buffer the impacts on Asian countries’ oil prices than oil supply. Under a pessimistic scenario, the oil supply of Asian countries would be disastrously disturbed. Moreover, political conflicts would force Asian countries to struggle for oil import sources, straining their relations and causing intense international competition.

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