An econophysics approach to forecast bulk shipbuilding orderbook: an application of Newton’s law of gravitation

Abstract

Purpose Bulk shipping mostly facilitates the smooth flow of raw materials around the globe. Regardless, forecasting a bulk shipbuilding orderbook is a seldom researched domain in the academic arena. This study aims to pioneer an econophysics approach coupled with an autoregressive data analysis technique for bulk shipbuilding order forecasting. Design/methodology/approach By offering an innovative forecasting method, this study provides a comprehensive but straightforward econophysics approach to forecast new shipbuilding order of bulk carrier. The model has been evaluated through autoregressive integrated moving average analysis, and the outcome indicates a relatively stable good fit. Findings The outcomes of the econophysics model indicate a relatively stable good fit. Although relevant maritime data and its quality need to be improved, the flexibility in refining the predictive variables ensure the robustness of this econophysics-based forecasting model. Originality/value By offering an innovative forecasting method, this study provides a comprehensive but straightforward econophysics approach to forecast new shipbuilding order of bulk carrier. The research result helps shipping investors make decision in a capital-intensive and uncertainty-prone environment.

Evaluation of GHG Emission Measures Based on Shipping and Shipbuilding Market Forecasting

“…Nielsen [10] analyzed the maritime market using a causal loop diagram and developed a forecasting model for the shipbuilding market. Sakalayen et al [11] formulated ship quantity order fluctuations using Newton's law of gravitation and developed a prediction model for order quantity by applying the multivariate autoregressive integrated moving average model. Gourdon [12] analyzed the price and cost determinants of new ships and discussed the impact of intervention by government agencies in the shipbuilding market.…”

“…Using this model, we forecast fleet volume, which is the key element in GHG emission estimation, by setting parameters such as GDP and cargo transportation distance. Although analysis and modeling in the maritime market have been carried out in these studies [10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17], a model that considers both the maritime market and GHG emissions has not yet been developed.…”

Shipbuilding capacity optimization using shipbuilding demand forecasting model

“…These studies focused on the demand and supply balance of the maritime market and considered the causal relation between its elements. Sakalayen et al [5] focused on bulk carrier new building market, and formulated ship quantity order fluctuations using Newton's law of gravitation. Then, they developed a prediction model for the newbuilding order by applying the multivariate autoregressive integrated moving average model.…”