An effective tool to support Sustainability Transitions

Abstract

Scenarios and Scenario Development Processes can provide valuable contributions to efforts for navigating sustainability transitions. To be effective, scenarios must be perceived as scientifically credible, politically salient, procedurally legitimate and inherently creative.

Structure in creativity: An exploratory study to analyse the effects of structuring tools on scenario workshop results

“…A number of studies have defined criteria for the quality of scenarios (e.g. [23][24][25][26]). Most of them mention credibility and creativity.…”

A critical review of the application of environmental scenario exercises

“…The subsequent stages are, in order: identify driving forces; label critical uncertainties; determine scenario p. 9 logics; and, elaborate scenarios (2008:24). In two articles on participatory scenario development, environmental planner Christian Albert (2008a;2008b) advocates a similar patterns of steps based on his own use of Jäger et al's (2007) 'simple framework of four main steps for developing scenarios.' The first step -'Clarifying the Purpose and Structure of the Scenario Exercise' -consists of defining the scope and issue of the scenarios, selecting the stakeholders and participants, and identifying themes, targets, indicators, and potential policies.…”

Participatory Scenario Development to Address Potential Impacts of Land Use Change: An Example from the Italian Alps

“…Scenarios are best developed not by researchers alone but with stakeholder participation. Participatory approaches offer a chance to discuss, negotiate, and reach agreement (Patel et al 2007;Albert 2008). Participatory scenario development can thus be considered more reliable and relevant for stakeholders (Von Korff et al 2010;Bohunovsky et al 2011;Kok et al 2015;Haller and Einsiedler 2015).…”