An ensemble-based assessment of bias adjustment performance, changes in hydrometeorological predictors and compound extreme events in EAS-CORDEX

Olschewski, Patrick; Laux, Patrick; Wei, Jianhui; Böker, Brian; Tian, Zhan; Sun, Laixiang; Kunstmann, Harald

doi:10.1016/j.wace.2022.100531

Cited by 7 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 111 publications

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“…It was therefore not the aim of this study to assess the opportunities and limitations of different methods. For example, the performance of several different multivariate bias correction methods could be evaluated in follow-up studies, similar to what has been done before for univariate correction methods applied to CORDEX ( Olschewski et al, 2023;Laux et al, 2021). An additional limitation of this study lies in the choice of reference data.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 98%

“…All previously described methods are applied independently to each variable. While these methods are not capable of specifically adjusting the day-to-day variability to match that of the reference data, the temporal physical coherence is nevertheless upheld, allowing for long-term climatological inspections (Olschewski et al, 2023). However, the independence of the correction process for multiple variables, where each variable is corrected on its own, aggravates the investigation of multivariate matters such as compound events (Zscheischler et al, 2019;Rocheta et al, 2014).…”

Section: Multivariate Bias Correctionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Amplified potential for vegetation stress under climate change-induced intensifying compound extreme events in the Greater Mediterranean Region

Olschewski,

Dieng,

Moutahir

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Abstract. The Mediterranean Basin is one of the regions most affected by climate change. It is highly dependent on the impact of climate change on agricultural efficiency and food security. While rising temperatures and decreasing precipitation levels already impose great risks, the effects of compounding extreme events (CEEs) can be significantly more severe and amplify the risk. It is therefore of high importance to assess these risks under climate change on a regional level to implement efficient adaption strategies. This study focuses on False Spring Events (FSEs), which impose a high risk of crop losses during the beginning of the vegetation growing period, as well as Heat and Drought-based CEEs (HDCEs) in summer, for a high-impact future scenario (RCP8.5). The results for 2070–2099 are compared to 1970–1999. In addition, deviations of the near-surface atmospheric state under FSEs and HDCEs are investigated with the aim to improve the predictability of these events. We apply a multivariate, trend-conserving bias correction method (MBCn) accounting for temporal coherency between the inspected variables derived from EUR-CORDEX. This method proves to be a suitable choice for the assessment of percentile threshold-based CEEs. The results show a potential increase in frequency of FSEs for large portions of the study domain, especially impacting later stages of the warming period, caused by disproportionate changes in the behavior of warm phases and frost events. Frost events causing FSEs predominantly occur under high-pressure conditions and northerly to easterly wind flow. HDCEs are projected to significantly increase in frequency, intensity, and duration, mostly driven by dry, continental air masses. This intensification is multiple times higher than that of the univariate components. This study improves the understanding of the unfolding of climate change in the Mediterranean and shows the need for further, locally refined, investigations and adaptation strategies.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Section: Multivariate Bias Correctionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Amplified potential for vegetation stress under climate change-induced intensifying compound extreme events in the Greater Mediterranean Region

Olschewski,

Dieng,

Moutahir

et al. 2023

Preprint

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“…Accordingly, at the regional scale, such acceleration modifies weather regimes and increases the number of hydrometeorological extremes (Ficklin et al, 2019;Giorgi et al, 2011;Gu et al, 2023), thereby increasing the complexity of water resources management (Ficklin et al, 2022;Vahmani et al, 2022). Furthermore, continuous global warming in the future could also trigger multiple climate tipping points, which makes the changes (here, acceleration/deceleration) of the hydrological cycle at the regional scale and their associated impacts more complex (McKay et al, 2022;Blöschl et al, 2019;Lenton et al, 2008;Olschewski et al, 2023). Therefore, the understanding of regional hydrological cycle responses to global warming is fundamental to risk mitigation.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Acceleration of the hydrological cycle under global warming? An age-weighted regional water tagging approach

Wei

Arnault

Rummler

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Global warming is assumed to accelerate the global water cycle. However, quantification of the acceleration and regional analyses remain open. Accordingly, in this study we address the fundamental hydrological question: Is the water cycle regionally accelerating/decelerating under global warming? For our investigation we have implemented the age-weighted regional water tagging approach into the Weather Research and Forecasting WRF model, namely WRF-age, to follow the atmospheric water pathways and to derive atmospheric water residence times accordingly. Moreover, we have implemented the three-dimensional online budget analysis of the total, tagged, and aged atmospheric water into WRF-age to provide a prognostic equation of the atmospheric water residence times. The newly developed, physics-based WRF-age model is used to regionally downscale the reanalysis of ERA-Interim and the MPI-ESM Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario (RCP8.5) simulation exemplarily for an East Asian monsoon region, i.e., the Poyang Lake basin (the tagged moisture source area), for two 10-year slices of historical (1980-1989) and future (2040-2049) times. In comparison to the historical simulation, the future 2-meter temperature rises by +1.4 °C, evaporation increases by +6%, and precipitation decreases by -38% under RCP8.5 on average. In this context, global warming leads to regionally decreased residence times for the tagged water vapor by 8 hours and the tagged condensed moisture by 12 hours in the atmosphere, but increased transit times for the tagged precipitation by 4 hours over the land surface that is partly attributed to a slower fallout of precipitating moisture components in the atmosphere under global warming.

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Evaluation and projection of precipitation and temperature in a coastal climatic transitional zone in China based on CMIP6 GCMs

Fang

Wei

et al. 2023

Clim Dyn

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An ensemble-based assessment of bias adjustment performance, changes in hydrometeorological predictors and compound extreme events in EAS-CORDEX

Cited by 7 publications

References 111 publications

Amplified potential for vegetation stress under climate change-induced intensifying compound extreme events in the Greater Mediterranean Region

Amplified potential for vegetation stress under climate change-induced intensifying compound extreme events in the Greater Mediterranean Region

Acceleration of the hydrological cycle under global warming? An age-weighted regional water tagging approach

Evaluation and projection of precipitation and temperature in a coastal climatic transitional zone in China based on CMIP6 GCMs

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