An evaluation of the economic, social, and ecological risks of China-Mongolia-Russia high-speed railway construction and policy suggestions

Dong, Suocheng; Yang, Yang; Li, Fujia; Cheng, Hao; Li, Jingnan; Bilgaev, Alexey; Li, Zehong; Yu, Li

doi:10.1007/s11442-018-1512-y

Cited by 43 publications

(29 citation statements)

References 7 publications

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“…From the perspective of economy, unfavorable economic situations will cause adverse changes in the market [ 13 ]. In economically-underdeveloped regions with low per-capita GDP, small populations and low regional attractiveness have negative impacts on HSR usage [ 45 ].…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…According to his study, complexity lies in the six dimensions of finance, context, management, site, task and delivery [ 12 ]. Dong proposed an integrated risk evaluation model to evaluate the economic, social and ecological risks of a certain HSR project [ 13 ]. Wang put forward an Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)-based major infrastructure risk assessment framework, where environmental risks, project implementation risks and decision-making-behaviour risks are taken into account [ 14 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Risk Assessment of High-Speed Rail Projects: A Risk Coupling Model Based on System Dynamics

Xue

Pan

Jia

et al. 2020

IJERPH

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Due to their characteristics and multiple objectives, high-speed rail (HSR) projects carry more complex risks than conventional projects and high correlation and conductivity are among the associated risk factors. Previous risk assessment frameworks for rail infrastructure have ignored the effects of risk interactions that inflate risk levels, namely, risk coupling effects. Based on a system dynamics method, this paper develops a risk coupling model for HSR project risk assessments. A risk factor list is established from a literature review, and relationships analysed using a case study and expert interviews. System dynamics equations are constructed and their parameters obtained by expert evaluations of risk factors. The proposed model is applied to a real-world HSR project to demonstrate it in detail. The model can evaluate the risk levels of HSR projects during a simulation period. In particular, it can identify the key coupling effects that are the main increased risk. It provides a significant resource, using which HSR project managers can identify and mitigate risks.

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk Assessment of High-Speed Rail Projects: A Risk Coupling Model Based on System Dynamics

Xue

Pan

Jia

et al. 2020

IJERPH

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“…But with Sino-Russian HSRs opening, high time-space compression can gradually reshape urban and regional economic form, function, and development mode in the future. With high speed, large capacity, security, and developed accessibility, HSRs must improve the economic connection between urban and regional areas along Sino-Russian HSR lines (Dong et al, 2018).…”

Section: Economic Connection Intensity Patternsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Dai and Jin (2008) studied the spatial interaction and network structure evolvement of cities in terms of China's rail passenger flows. Dong et al (2018) believed that the construction of China-Mongolia-Russia HSRs is a strategic move to promote transportation infrastructure inter-connectivity, which will enhance communication and cooperation among the three countries, and remold the economic distribution patterns along the railway corridor.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Transnational Economic Connection Analysis Based on Railway Class Accessibility Between China and Russia

Chu

Zhang

2019

Chin. Geogr. Sci.

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Under the background of 'the Belt and Road' initiative, the economic cooperation has great potential between China and Russia. The railway accessibility has an important influence on the economic connections of cities along the railway line. This paper studied the Sino-Russian transnational economic connection based on the railway class accessibility along Trans-Siberian railway (the transnational China railway branch line). The results are as following. First, the railway accessibility of the Chinese nodes is stronger than that of the Russian nodes, which in general displays a tendency of space attenuation from China to the Sino-Russian border, then to Russia. Spatially, the railway accessibility within the study area shows a 'High East, Low West' and 'High South, Low North' spatial pattern. The railway accessibility of the nodes, which are located at the beginning and end of the railway line, is weaker than those nodes located in the middle of the line. Second, the railway accessibility and external economic connection intensity summation of the nodes show a positive relationship along the railway line. The economic connection intensity summation of different nodes presents obvious regional differentiation. Finally, as economic connection network has evolved, the small world effect of Sino-Russian railway economic connection network becomes strong.

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“…To date, research on HSR has primarily focused on the following four aspects [6]: (1) improvement of regional traffic accessibility [7,8]; (2) impact on the labor markets for commuting relations [9];…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Social Risk of High-Speed Rail Projects in China: A Bayesian Network Analysis

Xue

Pan

2020

Sustainability

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In China, high-speed rail projects have brought huge social and economic benefits to the affected regions after they are completed. However, the potential externalities of such projects cause competition for the station during the project planning phase, thus triggering social risks. This paper studies the mechanisms responsible for generating the social risk associated with such high-speed rail projects. Employing typical case studies, a social risk list for a given project is established. Based on the risk list, a Bayesian network model is developed and verified through case studies, expert interviews, and expert grading. Using the model's functions of reverse inference and sensitivity analysis, the key risk factors, sensitive risk factors, and maximum causal chain are identified. Countermeasures are then proposed to mitigate the social risk, such as increasing the transparency of and democratizing the planning process for high-speed rail projects, improving the mechanism by which local governments can express interest in such projects, and enhancing emergency management mechanisms. The findings provide points of reference for social risk management when it comes to planning high-speed rail projects and, more generally, offer significant guidance for socially sustainable decision-making processes for mega projects with massive externalities.

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An evaluation of the economic, social, and ecological risks of China-Mongolia-Russia high-speed railway construction and policy suggestions

Cited by 43 publications

References 7 publications

Risk Assessment of High-Speed Rail Projects: A Risk Coupling Model Based on System Dynamics

Risk Assessment of High-Speed Rail Projects: A Risk Coupling Model Based on System Dynamics

Transnational Economic Connection Analysis Based on Railway Class Accessibility Between China and Russia

The Social Risk of High-Speed Rail Projects in China: A Bayesian Network Analysis

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