The Social Risk of High-Speed Rail Projects in China: A Bayesian Network Analysis

Abstract

In China, high-speed rail projects have brought huge social and economic benefits to the affected regions after they are completed. However, the potential externalities of such projects cause competition for the station during the project planning phase, thus triggering social risks. This paper studies the mechanisms responsible for generating the social risk associated with such high-speed rail projects. Employing typical case studies, a social risk list for a given project is established. Based on the risk list, a Bayesian network model is developed and verified through case studies, expert interviews, and expert grading. Using the model's functions of reverse inference and sensitivity analysis, the key risk factors, sensitive risk factors, and maximum causal chain are identified. Countermeasures are then proposed to mitigate the social risk, such as increasing the transparency of and democratizing the planning process for high-speed rail projects, improving the mechanism by which local governments can express interest in such projects, and enhancing emergency management mechanisms. The findings provide points of reference for social risk management when it comes to planning high-speed rail projects and, more generally, offer significant guidance for socially sustainable decision-making processes for mega projects with massive externalities.

Applications of Bayesian approaches in construction management research: a systematic review

“…Bayesian approaches for risk management have been applied to various types of projects, such as excavation projects (Wang et al , 2014; Cárdenas et al , 2014a, b; Castaldo et al , 2018), deep foundation pit construction (Zhou and Zhang, 2011), buried infrastructure (Kabir et al , 2018) and high-speed rail projects (Xue and Xiang, 2020). For these projects, the historical data are limited and difficult to obtain.…”

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Sustainable Mechanism of the Entrusted Transportation Management Mode on High-Speed Rail and the Impact of COVID-19: A Case Study of the Beijing–Shanghai High-Speed Rail

“…They proposed HSR line construction schemes from lean, agile, flexible and green directions. Xue et al [6] proposed that in the planning and construction of HSR, the degree of transparency and democratization should be improved to promote the coordinated development of HSR, society and environment. Rungskunroch et al [7] pointed out that HSR services should cooperate with the city's policymakers, business groups and related experts, who can enable the full integration of HSR services with urban planning, societal values, and other externalities.…”