An evaluation of the North Sea circulation in global and regional models relevant for ecosystem simulations

Pätsch, Johannes; Burchard, Hans; Dieterich, Christian; Gräwe, Ulf; Gröger, Matthias; Mathis, Moritz; Kapitza, Hartmut; Bersch, Manfred; Moll, A.; Pohlmann, Thomas; Su, Jian; Ho-Hagemann, Ha Thi Minh; Schulz, Achim; Elizalde, Alberto; Eden, Carsten

doi:10.1016/j.ocemod.2017.06.005

Cited by 48 publications

(49 citation statements)

References 70 publications

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“…In the North Sea, the mesh size ranges from about 12 km along the continental coast to about 30 km around the Shetland Islands. The vertical is resolved by 30 levels with 8 levels in the upper 100 m. The same configuration has also been used at various resolutions by Gröger et al (2013), Su et al (2014), Sein et al (2015) and Mathis et al (2015) and its potential compared to regional North Sea models has been evaluated in a recent study by Pätsch et al (2017). To account for ocean-atmosphere feedback mechanisms, REMO is interactively coupled with MPIOM over the European and northeast Atlantic areas.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Which complexity of regional climate system models is essential for downscaling anthropogenic climate change in the Northwest European Shelf?

Mathis

Elizalde²,

Mikolajewicz

2017

Clim Dyn

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Which complexity of regional climate system models is essential for downscaling anthropogenic climate change in the Northwest European Shelf?

Mathis

Elizalde²,

Mikolajewicz

2017

Clim Dyn

Self Cite

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“…Recently, Pätsch et al () carried out a thorough analysis of the performance of MPIOM (with a different grid configuration) in the North Sea. Their results suggest that MPIOM performs satisfactorily over most of the North Sea although with discrepancies near coasts.…”

Section: Model Details Methods and Model Evaluationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Therefore, of particular interest has been to understand which part of variability in the North Sea is of Atlantic origin (Alheit et al, ; Holliday & Reid, ). Hence, given the nature of the problem, recent studies have highlighted added value in simulating North Atlantic‐North Sea connections using global models (Mathis et al, ; Pätsch et al, ). This approach has the advantage that it allows a dynamically consistent representation of North Atlantic‐North Sea connections and circumvents the issues associated with specifying lateral boundary conditions in regional models.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Atlantic Inflow to the North Sea Modulated by the Subpolar Gyre in a Historical Simulation With MPI‐ESM

et al. 2019

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While the influence of the subpolar gyre (SPG) on thermohaline variability in the eastern North Atlantic is well documented, the extent and timescale of the influence of the SPG on North Sea is not well understood. This is primarily because earlier investigations on the causes of variability in the North Sea water properties mostly focused on the role of atmosphere and deployed regional models. Here using a historical simulation with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI‐ESM), we investigate circulation and water mass variability in key regions, namely, the Rockall Trough and the Faroe‐Scotland Channel, which link the North Atlantic to the North Sea. We find that salinity covaries with advective lags in these three regions and that the northern North Sea salinity follows the Rockall Trough with a lag of 1 year. We show that recurring and persistent excursions of salinity anomalies into the northern North Sea are related to the SPG strength and not to the local acceleration of the inflow. Furthermore, we illustrate that the SPG signal is more pronounced in salinity than in temperature and that this simulated SPG signal has a period of 30–40 years. Overall, our study suggests that, at low frequency, water mass variability originating in the North Atlantic dominates changes in the North Sea water properties over those due to local wind‐driven volume transport.

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“…In the end, total recruitment is approximately proportional to the ratio between optimal and poor conditions within the recruitment window the North Sea taking place around 2002, which also warrants further investigation. Lastly, we recognise that a relatively coarse resolution in ocean models (such as in the model used here) can lead to an underestimation of the volume transport, making it easier for wind forcing to affect surface flow (Pätsch et al 2017). Hence, we recommend that future studies use a higher horizontal model resolution.…”

Section: Conclusion and Prospects Of Using Oceanographic Data To Formentioning

confidence: 99%

Oceanographic flow regime and fish recruitment: reversed circulation in the North Sea coincides with unusually strong sandeel recruitment

Henriksen¹,

Christensen²,

Jónasdóttir³

et al. 2018

Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser.

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The search for environmental descriptors of fish stock production is ongoing. Although numerous correlations between environmental variables such as food abundance or sea surface temperature have been proposed in the past, few are operational in a fisheries management context today. Reasons for this may include many -but spurious -correlations, the use of higher-level climate-change indicators, and misconceived perception of causal relationships. In the present study, we demonstrate how modelled oceanographic data describing local conditions, combined with a simple probabilistic risk assessment, can be used to forecast fish recruitment. We used the lesser sandeel Ammodytes marinus in the North Sea as an example, and focussed on the circulation patterns experienced by the first-feeding larvae on the Dogger Bank. A strong link between the net direction of water transport at the surface and unusually strong year-classes of sandeel was found. For example, the most extreme recruitments only took place in years with a particular type of flow regime in February, which may be associated with the occasional reversals of the North Sea circulation. Using risk ratios, we show the potential for using flow regime in probabilistic short-term forecasts of unusually strong year-classes. Lastly, we propose a hypothesis for recruitment in sandeel which could be extended to other species, and thereby contribute to future studies of predictors in recruitment forecasting.

show abstract

An evaluation of the North Sea circulation in global and regional models relevant for ecosystem simulations

Cited by 48 publications

References 70 publications

Which complexity of regional climate system models is essential for downscaling anthropogenic climate change in the Northwest European Shelf?

Which complexity of regional climate system models is essential for downscaling anthropogenic climate change in the Northwest European Shelf?

Atlantic Inflow to the North Sea Modulated by the Subpolar Gyre in a Historical Simulation With MPI‐ESM

Oceanographic flow regime and fish recruitment: reversed circulation in the North Sea coincides with unusually strong sandeel recruitment

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