An impact assessment of sustainable technologies for the Chinese urban residential sector at provincial level

Abstract

Recently, energy use in the urban residential sector of China has drastically increased due to higher incomes and urbanization. The fossil fuels dominant energy supply has since worsened the air quality, especially in urban areas. In this study we estimate the future energy service demands in Chinese urban residential areas, and then use an AIM/Enduse model to evaluate the emission reduction potential of CO 2 , SO 2 , NO x and PM. Considering the climate diversity and its impact on household energy service demands, our analysis is down-scaled to the provincial-level. The results show that in most of the regions, penetration of efficient technologies will bring CO 2 emission reductions of over 20% compared to the baseline by the year 2030. Deployment of energy efficient technologies also cobenefits GHG emission reduction. However, efficient technology selection appears to differ across provinces due to climatic variation and economic disparity. For instance, geothermal heating technology is effective for the cold Northern areas while biomass technology contributes to emission reduction the most in the warm Southern areas.

Energy Service Demand Projections and CO2 Reduction Potentials in Rural Households in 31 Chinese Provinces

“…To conduct our analysis at the provincial level, we disaggregate the original national value to provincial values ( [22], Supplementary File S1). Consistent with SSP2's "business-as-usual" storyline, the difference between the provincial value and national value in a base year is assumed to stay the same up to 2050.…”

“…In our previous research we designed a macro-model [22,23] to estimate the future energy service demand of the urban residential sector. Rural energy service demand in the present study is estimated in the same manner, while the input databases on indicators such as the number of households, floor area, etc., are replaced with rural ones.…”

“…Rural energy service demand in the present study is estimated in the same manner, while the input databases on indicators such as the number of households, floor area, etc., are replaced with rural ones. In urban areas, space cooling service is also considered as a major residential energy service in China's warm regions [22]. However, cooling devices are rarely used in rural families.…”

“…Sustainability 2015, 72015, 7, page-page 5 considered as a major residential energy service in China's warm regions [22]. However, cooling devices are rarely used in rural families.…”

“…In the current study we evaluate income-induced service demand in the future by introducing satiation factors to calibrate our model estimates. The satiation factor of each energy service can be described as a logistic function with per capita income as the explanatory variable ( [22]; Equation (4)). When the per capita disposable income reaches the OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) average of 25,596 US$ (year 2011, current prices and purchasing power parity [29]) in the future, the satiation factor is manually set as 100%.…”