Recently, energy use in the urban residential sector of China has drastically increased due to higher incomes and urbanization. The fossil fuels dominant energy supply has since worsened the air quality, especially in urban areas. In this study we estimate the future energy service demands in Chinese urban residential areas, and then use an AIM/Enduse model to evaluate the emission reduction potential of CO 2 , SO 2 , NO x and PM. Considering the climate diversity and its impact on household energy service demands, our analysis is down-scaled to the provincial-level. The results show that in most of the regions, penetration of efficient technologies will bring CO 2 emission reductions of over 20% compared to the baseline by the year 2030. Deployment of energy efficient technologies also cobenefits GHG emission reduction. However, efficient technology selection appears to differ across provinces due to climatic variation and economic disparity. For instance, geothermal heating technology is effective for the cold Northern areas while biomass technology contributes to emission reduction the most in the warm Southern areas.

This study focuses on China's residential sector and examines energy use growth resulting from income increases and urbanization development. We also look at the energy transition (from primitive fuels to advanced fuels) caused by economic development, as well as the mitigation potential of greenhouse gas and air pollutants emissions. Several studies have provided evidence of a positive correlation between income and per capita final energy use at the national level. In addition to income, demographic factors such as household size and education level have also been suggested to have influences on urban energy use. In this study, we consider various socio-economic indicators to analyze their influences on household energy use. Considering the economic and climate diversity across China's provincial regions, our analysis is based on the 31 provincial regions and examines the emissions pathways of 31 provincial regions. We first apply a multiple linear regression analysis on historical panel data to determine the correlations between socio-economic indicators and domestic energy sources. Next, we use the Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM/Enduse) to estimate mitigation potential due to energy transition and sustainable policies. The results suggest that income and education levels are major drivers that have a significant impact on household energy choices both in rural and urban areas. In rural areas, climate and energy resource potential also have an impact on the choices of biomass energy use. Without consideration of energy transition constraints, future estimation of energy consumption and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions can be greatly overestimated or underestimated depending on the socioeconomic status of the province. It is important to note that the way that we consider energy transition constraints also significantly affects the air pollutants' emissions of the household sector due to biomass consumption, especially on particulate matter 2.5 microns or less (PM 2.5 ) emissions. Furthermore, implementation of efficient technologies contributes to achieving China's Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) and brings the co-benefits of air pollutants' emission reductions.

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