An integrated approach for the evaluation of national Foresight: The Russian case

Соколова, Анна

doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2015.05.015

Cited by 13 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…The study is an attempt to evaluate the outcomes of the "National Science and Technology Foresight" exercise implemented in 2012-2014 by a team of researchers. The methods used for ex post analysis are the literature review of the research and analytical publications that appeared after 2014, policy analysis of new national energy regulations and technologies, assessing the impacts of the study on policy-making (Könnölä et al, 2011) through interviews and expert panels (Fahrenkrog et al, 2002;Georghiou and Keenan, 2006), other types of impacts outlined by Miles (2002) and Johnston (2012) and performing a SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) analysis (Sokolova, 2015). This paper briefly presents the outcomes of the energy block of the National S&T Foresight 2030 and, at the same time, offers their ex post evaluation and an analysis of the methodology used in the study.…”

Section: Design/methodology/approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

Russia’s energy in 2030: future trends and technology priorities

Proskuryakova

2017

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Purpose The purpose of the study is to discuss and critically assess the outcomes of the Foresight study of the Russian energy sector, undertaken in 2014 in the course of a large-scale national Foresight exercise – “Science and Technology (S&T) Foresight 2030”. Design/methodology/approach In this paper, the author performs an ex post evaluation of the Foresight study. The methods used are the literature review of the research and analytical publications that appeared after 2014, policy analysis of new national energy regulations and technologies, interviews and expert panels, and performing a final SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) analysis of the Foresight study. Findings As a result of the study, the expediency, efficacy, process efficiency, quality, impact and process improvement of the National S&T Foresight 2030 were assessed. Moreover, the SWOT for the National Foresight and its energy-related outcomes were identified. The National Foresight methodology and its outcomes are critically reviewed, and recommendations for their refinement are made. Research limitations/implications Future research on the topic may include subsequent ex ante and ex post evaluations of energy technology foresights that will include revised lists of technologies, given the rapidly changing energy markets, as well as an assessment of the integration of the study results in the energy and S&T policy documents. Practical implications The practical implications of the study are linked with turning the prospective R&D areas identified through the Foresight into state priorities for funding energy research. Energy companies may utilize the study results in their development plans and R&D strategies. Originality/value This paper offers a valuable insight in the future of energy research and technologies in Russia. It is a comprehensive study that covers all energy aspects from extraction of hydrocarbons to fuel cells and nuclear energy. An ex post assessment of the study is made with implications for the future research.

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Section: Design/methodology/approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

Russia’s energy in 2030: future trends and technology priorities

Proskuryakova

2017

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“…Although an analysis of the level of implementation of the TR objectives (design and implementation) seems reasonable for evaluating the impact of the exercise, there is no consensus among scholars about a framework for foresight exercise evaluation (Sokolova, 2015). Among the classic evaluation criteria are the efficiency of implementation, their impact and effectiveness, the appropriateness of the objectives and the “behavioural additionality” criterion (Georghiou and Keenan, 2006).…”

Section: Foresight In Security and Defencementioning

confidence: 99%

Technology roadmapping in security and defence foresight

Oliva

Sánchez

2018

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Purpose This paper aims to provide an analysis of Spanish Defence National Foresight Exercise. Design/methodology/approach The analysis is based on a content analysis of public domain Spanish Defence National Foresight Exercise, and a study directed to analyse the impact on defence technological and industrial base. Findings Foresight studies on the defence and security environment uses hybrid methodologies, but rarely involve all the stakeholders, and specially the citizens. The authors place a particular emphasis on the impact of these defence and security foresight studies, and following policies to increase the competitiveness and advanced technologies in the future. The analysis of the Spanish contractors allows an evaluation of the roadmaps as a policy instrument for the industrial defence industry. The main challenges for the next exercises in the European countries are to increase the interest in the firms’ intelligence systems, and the participation and representation of citizens as a way to guarantee their rights. Therefore, a technology roadmap must be complemented with other more participative foresight methods. Originality/value Foresight studies on the defence and security environment have been the subject of very few systematic analyses of impact. This paper makes a contribution to such analysis.

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“…The proposed methodology was tested in the Russian National Foresight 2030, and the article presents and analyzes the results. Further ways of developing this approach are suggested (Sokolova, 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analyzing Iran’s science and technology foresight programs: recommendations for further practices

Hafezi

Malekifar

Akhavan

2018

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Purpose Studying previous science and technology (S&T) foresight activities reveals information that helps decision makers to redesign policy-making templates aimed at dealing with new millennium challenges. To propose policy recommendations about further S&T foresight programs in Iran, this paper aims to propose a three-phase process to study historical S&T foresight activities at national and sub-national level since 2005 to 2015, to analyze the state of selected activities to discover weaknesses and potential solutions and, finally, to provide strategies and tactics to improve further S&T foresight activities through an expert-based process. Design/methodology/approach This paper provides a three-stage methodology, designed to survey Iranian historical foresight practices (study) using scoping framework equipped with additional features, diagnosis and evaluating (analyze) and finally proposing recommendations to organize and implement more efficient further foresight practices (design) to initialize further practices in developing countries such as Iran. Findings Although concerns about future and the importance of foresight activities are raised however Iranian foresight community needs to be developed. As noted in Section 5, Iranian foresight facilitators and specialist are biased to limited methodologies and methods; therefore, creating foresight networks and developing communities is strongly recommended. Research limitations/implications The main constraint of this research was lack of valid data in the case of some Iranian S&T foresight programs. Originality/value Iran as a developing country needs to plan for long-run programs; however, there is no integrated study which reviews and analyzes the previous attempts to dedicate insights about how to reframe existing foresight paradigms. As foresight practices facilitate the paths toward sustainability, analyzing and diagnosis of a series of foresight practices in a devolving country may initialize designing such efforts in less developed world.

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An integrated approach for the evaluation of national Foresight: The Russian case

Cited by 13 publications

References 25 publications

Russia’s energy in 2030: future trends and technology priorities

Russia’s energy in 2030: future trends and technology priorities

Technology roadmapping in security and defence foresight

Analyzing Iran’s science and technology foresight programs: recommendations for further practices

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