Technology roadmapping in security and defence foresight

Abstract

Purpose This paper aims to provide an analysis of Spanish Defence National Foresight Exercise. Design/methodology/approach The analysis is based on a content analysis of public domain Spanish Defence National Foresight Exercise, and a study directed to analyse the impact on defence technological and industrial base. Findings Foresight studies on the defence and security environment uses hybrid methodologies, but rarely involve all the stakeholders, and specially the citizens. The authors place a particular emphasis on the impact of these defence and security foresight studies, and following policies to increase the competitiveness and advanced technologies in the future. The analysis of the Spanish contractors allows an evaluation of the roadmaps as a policy instrument for the industrial defence industry. The main challenges for the next exercises in the European countries are to increase the interest in the firms’ intelligence systems, and the participation and representation of citizens as a way to guarantee their rights. Therefore, a technology roadmap must be complemented with other more participative foresight methods. Originality/value Foresight studies on the defence and security environment have been the subject of very few systematic analyses of impact. This paper makes a contribution to such analysis.

Technology Development Roadmaps: A Bibliometric Analysis of Scientific Literature

“…R&D management (Shim et al, 2019;Yu and Li, 2018;Zhou et al, 2019;Vicente and Martinez-Sanchez, 2018;Behling et al, 2019;Kim and Choi, 2018);…”

Towards a contingent approach to firm strategy on the lowest levels of the hierarchy of the defence industry

“…The characteristics and evolution of the military technologies have been supported by MoDs (Saritas and Burmaoglu, 2016; Vicente-Oliva and Martinez-Sanchez, 2018) in prior decades. The impact of public investments in national economies has been studied by several research works.…”

“…The defence sector has some particular characteristics due to the encouragement of strategic players as the MoDs, prime contractors, etc. Therefore, they are involved in foresight studies backing to the discussion of future security challenges (James and Teichler, 2014; Vicente-Oliva and Martinez-Sanchez, 2018). These strategic defence players are big enough to develop strategies of their own and influence the future defence market.…”

“…Moreover, LH firms may be more dependent of MoDs due to their lower level of resources or limited visibility within the defence market. For instance, Spanish MoD diffuse technology roadmaps to different firms (Vicente-Oliva and Martinez-Sanchez, 2018), but the mediating role of the State for helping LH firms has not been studied previously. These are the main reasons to explain why we cannot use the usual knowledge to design strategy of LH firms.…”