An integrated assessment framework for land subsidence in delta cities

Bucx, T.; Ruiten, C.J.M. van; Erkens, Gilles; Lange, Ger de

doi:10.5194/piahs-372-485-2015

Cited by 28 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 7 publications

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“…Guangzhou may be globally the most economically vulnerable city to rising sea levels by the middle of the 21st century, with estimated losses of $254 million per year under a sea level rise of 0.2 m (4); however, other cities in India, Bangladesh, and Southeast Asia (Table 2 and Table S2) will likely have larger populations at risk by that date (29,30). In several coastal cities, current land subsidence exceeds observed sea level rise (15,28,31,32). Economic development in urban areas of megacities drives the growing demand for groundwater, therefore increasing subsidence rates, with 2025 projected (15,28) 2 m), and the western Netherlands (0.07 m).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Coastal sea level rise with warming above 2 °C

Jevrejeva

Jackson

Riva

et al. 2016

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

190

140

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Two degrees of global warming above the preindustrial level is widely suggested as an appropriate threshold beyond which climate change risks become unacceptably high. This "2°C" threshold is likely to be reached between 2040 and 2050 for both Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 and 4.5. Resulting sea level rises will not be globally uniform, due to ocean dynamical processes and changes in gravity associated with water mass redistribution. Here we provide probabilistic sea level rise projections for the global coastline with warming above the 2°C goal. By 2040, with a 2°C warming under the RCP8.5 scenario, more than 90% of coastal areas will experience sea level rise exceeding the global estimate of 0.2 m, with up to 0.4 m expected along the Atlantic coast of North America and Norway. With a 5°C rise by 2100, sea level will rise rapidly, reaching 0.9 m (median), and 80% of the coastline will exceed the global sea level rise at the 95th percentile upper limit of 1.8 m. Under RCP8.5, by 2100, New York may expect rises of 1.09 m, Guangzhou may expect rises of 0.91 m, and Lagos may expect rises of 0.90 m, with the 95th percentile upper limit of 2.24 m, 1.93 m, and 1.92 m, respectively. The coastal communities of rapidly expanding cities in the developing world, and vulnerable tropical coastal ecosystems, will have a very limited time after midcentury to adapt to sea level rises unprecedented since the dawn of the Bronze Age.2°warming | coastal sea level rise | probabilistic sea level projections | regional sea level rise T he threshold for dangerous climate change is widely reported to be about 2°C above preindustrial temperature; therefore, international efforts have been generally aimed at keeping average global temperatures below this (1, 2). Fragile coastal ecosystems (3) and increasing concentrations of population and economic activity in maritime cities (4) are reasons why future sea level rise is one of the most damaging aspects of the warming climate (5). Furthermore, sea level is set to continue to rise for centuries after greenhouse gas emissions concentrations are stabilized due to system inertia and feedback time scales (5-7). Impact, risk, adaptation policies, and long-term decision-making in coastal areas depend on regional and local sea level rise projections, and local projections can differ substantially from the global one (6,(8)(9)(10)(11). Coastal sea level projections should also take into account the local vertical land movement that is caused both by glacial isostatic adjustments (GIAs) due to redistribution of masses subsequent to the end of the last ice age (12-14), and subsidence due to groundwater extraction, urbanization, tectonics, and river delta sedimentation rates (15).Global sea level is an integrated climate system response to changes in radiative forcing that alters the dynamics and thermodynamics of the atmosphere, ocean, and cryosphere. In a warming climate, global sea level will rise due to melting of land-based glaciers and ice sheets and from the thermal expansion o...

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Coastal sea level rise with warming above 2 °C

Jevrejeva

Jackson

Riva

et al. 2016

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

190

140

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“…The combination of damage information with hazard estimates will permit improved assessments of potential loss and design of cost-effective countermeasures. Presently, annual subsidence costs are only published for China (US$ 1.5 billion) and the Netherlands (US$ 4.8 billion) (9). The greater subsidence costs in the Netherlands owe to the exposed population below the mean sea level and the large investments made to prevent flooding.…”

Section: Potential Global Subsidence and In East Asia And In North Americamentioning

confidence: 99%

Mapping the global threat of land subsidence

Herrera¹,

Ezquerro²,

Tomás³

et al. 2021

Science

296

121

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“…Coastal mega-cities that have been particularly prone to human-enhanced subsidence include Bangkok, Ho Chi Minh city (Vachaud et al, 2018), Jakarta, Manila, New Orleans, West Netherlands and Shanghai (Yin et al, 2013;Cheng et al, 2018). On a global scale, observed rates of modern deltaic anthropogenic subsidence range from 6-100 mm yr -1 (Bucx et al, 2015;Higgins, 2016). Rates of recent deltaic subsidence over the last few decades have been at least twice the 3 mm yr -1 rate of GMSL rise observed over this same interval (Higgins, 2016;Tessler et al, 2018).…”

Section: Local Coastal Sea Levelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sea Level Rise and Implications for Low-Lying Islands, Coasts and Communities

2022

The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate

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This chapter assesses past and future contributions to global, regional and extreme sea level changes, associated risk to low-lying islands, coasts, cities, and settlements, and response options and pathways to resilience and sustainable development along the coast. ObservationsGlobal mean sea level (GMSL) is rising (virtually certain 1 ) and accelerating (high confidence 2 ). The sum of glacier and ice sheet contributions is now the dominant source of GMSL rise (very high confidence). GMSL from tide gauges and altimetry observations increased from 1.4 mm yr -1 over the period 1901-1990 to 2.1 mm yr -1 over the period 1970-2015 to 3.2 mm yr -1 over the period 1993-2015 to 3.6 mm yr -1 over the period 2006-2015 (high confidence). The dominant cause of GMSL rise since 1970 is anthropogenic forcing (high confidence). {4.2.2.1.1, 4.2.2.2} GMSL was considerably higher than today during past climate states that were warmer than pre-industrial, including the Last Interglacial (LIG; 129-116 ka), when global mean surface temperature was 0.5ºC-1.0ºC warmer, and the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP; ~3.3 to 3.0 million years ago), 2ºC-4ºC warmer. Despite the modest global warmth of the Last Interglacial, GMSL was likely 6-9 m higher, mainly due to contributions from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (GIS and AIS, respectively), and unlikely more than 10m higher (medium confidence). Based on new understanding about geological constraints since the IPCC 5th Assessment Report (AR5), 25 m is a plausible upper bound on GMSL during the mPWP (low confidence). Ongoing uncertainties in palaeo sea level reconstructions and modelling hamper conclusions regarding the total magnitudes and rates of past sea level rise (SLR). Furthermore, the long (multi-millennial) time scales of these past climate and sea level changes, and regional climate influences from changes in Earth's orbital configuration and climate system feedbacks, lead to low confidence in direct comparisons with near-term future changes. {Cross-Chapter Box 5 in Chapter 1, 4.

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An integrated assessment framework for land subsidence in delta cities

Cited by 28 publications

References 7 publications

Coastal sea level rise with warming above 2 °C

Coastal sea level rise with warming above 2 °C

Mapping the global threat of land subsidence

Sea Level Rise and Implications for Low-Lying Islands, Coasts and Communities

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