An integrated assessment of the potential impacts of climate change on Indiana forests

Abstract

Forests provide myriad ecosystem services, many of which are vital to local and regional economies. Consequently, there is a need to better understand how predicted changes in climate will impact forests dynamics and the implications of such changes for society as a whole. Here we focus on the impacts of climate change on Indiana forests, which are representative of many secondary growth broadleaved forests in the greater Midwest region in terms of their land use history and current composition. We find that predicted changes in climate for the statewarmer and wetter winters/springs and hotter and potentially drier summerswill dramatically shape forest communities, resulting in new assemblages of trees and wildlife that differ from forest communities of the past or present. Overall, suitable habitat is expected to decline for 17-29 percent of tree species and increase for 43-52 percent of tree species in the state, depending on the region and climate scenario. Such changes have important consequences for wildlife that depend on certain tree species or have ranges with strong sensitivities to climate. Additionally, these changes will have potential economic impacts on Indiana industries that depend on forest resources and products (both timber and non-timber). Finally, we offer some practical suggestions on how management may minimize the extent of climate-induced ecological impacts, and highlight a case study from a tree planting initiative currently underway in the Patoka River National Wildlife Refuge and Management Area.

COVID-19 and Forests in Canada and the United States: Initial Assessment and Beyond

“…The COVID-19 pandemic initially caused shortterm disruptions in the supply chains of the forest products industry and accelerated recent trends in consumer behavior (FAO, 2020;ILO, 2020;Lund et al, 2020). In addition to the uncertainty of long-term effects, forecasting how the COVID-19 pandemic will affect forests and forest industry is difficult because of the entanglement with other threats and influences on forests such as wildfires and climate change (Phillips et al, 2020).…”

Implications of climate change for tourism and outdoor recreation: an Indiana, USA, case study

“…Of course, residents at a destination also use products and services catering to visitors, including outdoor recreational facilities. While discussions about tourism and visitors deal primarily with people traveling to a new location, recreation has no spatial or temporal boundaries (Nicholls 2012), and residents enjoy recreation within their community. The relationship between tourism and economic development is recognized, and in 2020, Indiana established the Indiana Destination Development Corporation (IDDC) to develop and market destination communities with a mandate to "attract and retain business, talent, students and visitors" (IOTD 2020b).…”

“…Of the 45 climate change plans currently complete in the USA, five explicitly address tourism, or both tourism and recreation (Widhalm and Dukes 2020). Although there has been some examination of the impact of climate change on tourism and outdoor recreation across the Great Lakes region (Nicholls 2012;NPCA 2013), this is the first examination of climate change impacts on tourism and recreation in Indiana.…”

“…Mild weather-defined by moderate temperatures, low precipitation, and low relative humidity-is considered desirable (van der Wiel et al 2017). Composite indexes that take into account various weather-related factors, such as the Tourism Climatic Index (Mieczkowski 1985), have been applied to tourism and outdoor recreation activities (Ma et al 2020;Nicholls 2012;Scott et al 2016b).…”

Introduction to the Indiana Climate Change Impacts Assessment: overview of the process and context

“…An integrated assessment of the potential impacts of climate change on Indiana forests (Phillips et al 2019) looks at end-of-century projections of tree habitat suitability, resulting effects on forest composition and ecosystem services, and implications for forest management. Phillips et al (2019) also discuss impacts to wildlife, implications for tree growth and harvest, and potential changes in biological stressors such as invasive plants and pests.…”