An integrated, dynamic approach to travel demand forecasting

Slavin, Howard

doi:10.1007/bf00165707

Cited by 7 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…In this way, simulation provides a platform for experimentation (Dowling, 1999), allowing the manipulation of characteristics of people and the environment that would otherwise be impossible for ethical, economic, or logistic reasons (Axtell, 2000;Dibble, 2001;Dowling, 1999;Slavin, 1996). It also allows the exploration of phenomena for which data are not available.…”

Section: What Can We Hope To Learn From Simulation Modeling?mentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulating Crime Prevention Strategies: A Look at the Possibilities

Groff¹,

Birks²

2008

Policing

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While essential, the process of developing and testing crime prevention strategies is currently an expensive and time-consuming process. In addition, there are some potential crime prevention programs that are either too costly or unethical to test empirically. What if we could test these strategies in an artificial world first? In a world of increasingly uncertain resources, simulation offers a promising methodology for experimenting with potential strategies to identify the most promising ones before they are tested empirically. This paper introduces simulation and then explores the potential of and challenges to the use of simulation models to provide valuable information about the potential effectiveness of crime prevention strategies. One potential application of simulation is discussed in detail and several others are suggested.phenomena. In the field of criminology, several theoretically based simulations create artificial worlds and populate them with virtual beings, referred to as agents. These agents are programmed with behaviors based on one or more theories from a number of disciplines, including environmental criminology, cognitive science, behavioral geography, and ecology, which dictate how they perceive, reason, and act within the simulation environment. While the model is running, agents interact with each other and their environment. Researchers then assess which factors might be important in offender decision making and how the results of those decisions produce specific crime patterns (Eck, 2005;Groff, 2007a;Liu et al., 2005).Once a model has been developed, it can be used to run simulation experiments, the results of which are analyzed to determine whether or not the mechanisms involved work the way theory would have predicted. After a model has been validated to ensure it is producing plausible results, candidate crime prevention strategies can be systematically implemented in silico and their effect on the individual agents and the outcome patterns can be explored. This paper introduces simulation as a methodology for developing and testing crime prevention strategies, and provides one illustrative example of its application and several additional examples of possible directions, ending with a discussion of some challenges that must be overcome for simulation to achieve its potential.

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Section: What Can We Hope To Learn From Simulation Modeling?mentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulating Crime Prevention Strategies: A Look at the Possibilities

Groff¹,

Birks²

2008

Policing

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“…This type of simulation has been termed a computational laboratory. A computational laboratory is a set of software tools that enable the specification and execution of systematic experiments using simulation (Chen et al 1994;Slavin 1996;Dibble 2001;Parker et al 2001;Tesfatsion 2001). Simulations implemented in the framework of a computational laboratory offer the advantage of being able to hold the agents and/or the landscape constant and then vary one or both of them systematically.…”

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confidence: 99%

Simulated experiments and their potential role in criminology and criminal justice

Groff

Mazerolle

2008

J Exp Criminol

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The use of computational simulations in the field of criminology and criminal justice is growing rapidly (Gunderson and Brown 2000;Liu et al. 2005;Wang 2005; Eck and Liu 2008). Some criminologists emphasize the importance of simulation methods for strengthening and elaborating theory Eck 2005;Groff 2007b), others focus on the use of simulation as a policy evaluation tool (Perez and Dray 2005). Groff (2007a), for example, created a society and then systematically varied specific conditions under which that society operated (e.g., average time spent away from home and the spatio-temporal constraints on routine activity spaces) to assess how varying different components of routine activity theory might variously impact on street robbery outcomes. This Special Issue of the Journal of Experimental Criminology takes stock of how simulation methodologies are currently used and thought about in the field of criminology and criminal justice. We have assembled a collection of seven papers that together provide a snapshot of the issues and complexities of applying computer simulation to criminology and criminal justice. Our introductory comments seek to introduce the reader to different types of simulation models, highlight the complexities encountered in building robust models, and situate the application of computer simulation within the broader spectrum of experimental criminology.Outside of criminology, researchers have discussed the potential to conduct experiments using 'virtual' places, people or situations for some time (Dowling 1999;Berk et al. 2000). Related disciplines such as economics (Schelling 1971; 1 These references are but a small sample of the work that has been done in related disciplines. The natural sciences have been utilizing simulation for even longer to understand climate, ocean currents, wild fires, etc. (for a recent collection see Maguire et al. (2005) or the proceedings of the 2000 GIS & Environmental Modeling conference at

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