Simulated experiments and their potential role in criminology and criminal justice

Abstract

The use of computational simulations in the field of criminology and criminal justice is growing rapidly (Gunderson and Brown 2000;Liu et al. 2005;Wang 2005; Eck and Liu 2008). Some criminologists emphasize the importance of simulation methods for strengthening and elaborating theory Eck 2005;Groff 2007b), others focus on the use of simulation as a policy evaluation tool (Perez and Dray 2005). Groff (2007a), for example, created a society and then systematically varied specific conditions under which that society operated (e.g., average time spent away from home and the spatio-temporal constraints on routine activity spaces) to assess how varying different components of routine activity theory might variously impact on street robbery outcomes. This Special Issue of the Journal of Experimental Criminology takes stock of how simulation methodologies are currently used and thought about in the field of criminology and criminal justice. We have assembled a collection of seven papers that together provide a snapshot of the issues and complexities of applying computer simulation to criminology and criminal justice. Our introductory comments seek to introduce the reader to different types of simulation models, highlight the complexities encountered in building robust models, and situate the application of computer simulation within the broader spectrum of experimental criminology.Outside of criminology, researchers have discussed the potential to conduct experiments using 'virtual' places, people or situations for some time (Dowling 1999;Berk et al. 2000). Related disciplines such as economics (Schelling 1971; 1 These references are but a small sample of the work that has been done in related disciplines. The natural sciences have been utilizing simulation for even longer to understand climate, ocean currents, wild fires, etc. (for a recent collection see Maguire et al. (2005) or the proceedings of the 2000 GIS & Environmental Modeling conference at

Examining the Relationship Between Road Structure and Burglary Risk Via Quantitative Network Analysis

“…Though not concerned explicitly with network structure, two previous studies of road closure, carried out by Matthews (1993Matthews ( , 1997) using a quasi-experimental design, are particularly notable for having brought about an apparent reduction in burglary, despite being focussed primarily on prostitution. A further, and complementary, possibility, would be to explore these issues further via agent-based modelling (see Groff and Mazerolle 2008). This represents a means by which the consequences of potential changes to network structure could be explored quantitatively, at low marginal cost, prior to their deployment in the real world.…”

When Early Crime Prevention Goes to Scale: A New Look at the Evidence

“…Considering such complexity and the outcomes that it generates is a main strength of computational models (Epstein 1999). The application of computer simulation and agent-based models may be particularly useful in illuminating the potential outcome of the process of scaling up (Groff and Mazerolle 2008).…”

Examining context-specific perceptions of risk: exploring the utility of “human-in-the-loop” simulation models for criminology

“…As outlined by Groff and Mazerolle (2008), recent research activity within criminology and criminal justice has indicated growing support for the utility of computer-based simulations (as emphasized by the 2008 special issue of the Journal of Experimental Criminology that focused explicitly on these techniques). To date, simulation has examined a broad range of techniques and a wide spectrum of criminological issues.…”