An Integrated Simulation-Assessment Approach for Evaluating Health Risks of Groundwater Contamination Under Multiple Uncertainties

Yang, Aili; Huang, Guohe; Qin, Xiaosheng

doi:10.1007/s11269-010-9610-3

Cited by 31 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…LHS is an efficient sampling method that provides larger sample space with less computational effort comparable to those obtained from the conventional Monte Carlo simulation (Tang et al, 2007;Davey, 2008). LHS divides the feasible parameter space into equal intervals, so that at least one sample of each parameter set is selected randomly from each interval (Yang et al, 2010). To do an exhaustive search of behavioral parameters we decide to sample 20 000 parameters using LHS.…”

Section: Hydrologic Model and Parameter Uncertaintymentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying uncertainty in urban flooding analysis considering hydro-climatic projection and urban development effects

Jung

Chang

Moradkhani

2011

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

106

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Abstract. How will the combined impacts of land use change, climate change, and hydrologic modeling influence changes in urban flood frequency and what is the main uncertainty source of the results? Will such changes differ by catchment with different degrees of current and future urban development? We attempt to answer these questions in two catchments with different degrees of urbanization, the Fanno catchment with 84% urban land use and the Johnson catchment with 36% urban land use, both located in the Pacific Northwest of the US. Five uncertainty sources -general circulation model (GCM) structures, future greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios, land use change scenarios, natural variability, and hydrologic model parameters -are considered to compare the relative source of uncertainty in flood frequency projections. Two land use change scenarios, conservation and development, representing possible future land use changes are used for analysis. Results show the highest increase in flood frequency under the combination of medium high GHG emission (A1B) and development scenarios, and the lowest increase under the combination of low GHG emission (B1) and conservation scenarios. Although the combined impact is more significant to flood frequency change than individual scenarios, it does not linearly increase flood frequency. Changes in flood frequency are more sensitive to climate change than land use change in the two catchments for 2050s . Shorter term flood frequency change, 2 and 5 year floods, is highly affected by GCM structure, while longer term flood frequency change above 25 year floods is dominated by natural variability. Projected flood frequency changes more significantly in Johnson creek than Fanno creek. This result indicates that, under expected Correspondence to: H. Chang (changh@pdx.edu) climate change conditions, adaptive urban planning based on the conservation scenario could be more effective in less developed Johnson catchment than in the already developed Fanno catchment.

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Section: Hydrologic Model and Parameter Uncertaintymentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying uncertainty in urban flooding analysis considering hydro-climatic projection and urban development effects

Jung

Chang

Moradkhani

2011

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

106

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“…The first is the return period method, which is brief and commonly used for the risk analysis and prediction of extreme events (Chebana et al 2010;Chow et al 1988;Yang et al 2010). However, it is difficult to determine the integrated risk of a flood control system using the return period method.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk analysis for the downstream control section in the real-time flood control operation of a reservoir

Chen

Zhong

Zhao

et al. 2015

Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess

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Many uncertainty factors are associated with the joint operation of a reservoir and its downstream river, which create risks in flood control decisions. Therefore, this paper proposes an analytical method for the estimation of the uncertainties and their risks in real-time flood control decisions. Three uncertainty factors, including reservoir discharge errors, forecasting errors of lateral inflows and river food routing errors are proposed and modeled as stochastic processes, and their internal transforming formulas are derived based on the theory of routing before combination. The definition and calculation formulas for the risks of each moment and the integrated risk of the entire flood process at the downstream flood control section are proposed by an analytical approach based on the combination theory of stochastic processes. The Dahuofang reservoir in northern China is selected as the study case. The results indicate that the risk of the flood peak is higher than that of other moments under the same controlled flood discharge and that the risk that arises from the uncertainties of the reservoir discharge and lateral inflow is decreased by the river storage function. Compared with the Monte Carlo method, the proposed method is effective and efficient for performing risk analysis of the downstream control section in the real-time flood control operation of a reservoir. The risk analysis results could provide important information regarding flood risks for the operators to implement flood control arrangements.

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“…and variability/uncertainty in the groundwater flow/transport have been incorporated into models involving probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) frameworks (Maxwell and Kastenberg, ; Maxwell et al . , Yang et al ., ; de Barros et al ., ). This inclusion of uncertainty and variability into the calculation of health risk is in line with recent suggestions from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) regarding the necessity of PRA for groundwater contamination (USEPA, 2001; Lester et al ., ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Time‐Dependent Health Risk from Contaminated Groundwater Including Use of Reliability, Resilience, and Vulnerability as Measures

Rodak

Silliman

Bolster

2013

J American Water Resour Assoc

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Traditionally, assessment of human health risk caused by contamination of a water supply focuses on the maximum risk to an individual. Here, we introduce a time-dependent risk assessment method and adapt and explore the reliability, resilience, and vulnerability (RRV) criteria from the surface-water literature as possible tools for assessing this risk. Time-dependent risk assessment, including RRV, is applied to two synthetic examples where water quality at a well varies over time. We calculate time-dependent health risks for discrete periods of exposure to the contaminated water for a variable population. The RRV criteria provide information about time-dependent risk: probability of an acceptable risk, probability of system recovery, maximum risk, and average exceedance of a prescribed risk threshold. The results demonstrate that episodic contamination events produce fundamentally different time-dependent risks than long-term events: these differences, such as generally lower risks for the episodic contamination, can be captured via plots of the risk and the RRV criteria. Furthermore, the evaluation of time-dependent health risk and the RRV criteria demonstrates significant sensitivity to the shape of the contaminant breakthrough curve, length of exposure, and variability within the population. Overall, analysis of time-dependent health risks provides substantial insight into the structure of risk, with RRV providing a reasonable framework for the evaluation of these risks.(KEY TERMS: groundwater hydrology; risk assessment; drinking water; public health; cancer risk; groundwater contamination.) Rodak, Carolyn, Stephen E. Silliman, and Diogo Bolster, 2013. Time-Dependent Health Risk from Contaminated Groundwater Including Use of Reliability, Resilience, and Vulnerability as Measures.

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An Integrated Simulation-Assessment Approach for Evaluating Health Risks of Groundwater Contamination Under Multiple Uncertainties

Cited by 31 publications

References 45 publications

Quantifying uncertainty in urban flooding analysis considering hydro-climatic projection and urban development effects

Quantifying uncertainty in urban flooding analysis considering hydro-climatic projection and urban development effects

Risk analysis for the downstream control section in the real-time flood control operation of a reservoir

Time‐Dependent Health Risk from Contaminated Groundwater Including Use of Reliability, Resilience, and Vulnerability as Measures

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