An integrated statistical and data-driven framework for supporting flood risk analysis under climate change

Yan, Lu; Qin, Xiaosheng; Xie, Yuyuan

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.11.041

Cited by 34 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 63 publications

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“…For example, while climate models generally do well at representing decadal variability, and to some extent, monthly variability, and representation of annual extremes is challenging. [38][39][40][41]. The inability to capture extremes in the meteorological variables translates to an inability to capture extremes in runoff and subsequently an underestimation in statistical distributions of annual extreme events.…”

Section: Frequency Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrated Modeling Approach for the Development of Climate-Informed, Actionable Information

Judi¹,

Rakowski²,

Waichler³

et al. 2018

Preprint

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Flooding is a prevalent natural disaster with both short and long-term social, economic, and infrastructure impacts. Changes in intensity and frequency of precipitation (including rain, snow, and rain on snow) events create challenges for the planning and management of resilient infrastructure and communities. While there is general acknowledgement that new infrastructure design should account for future climate change, no clear methods or actionable information is available to community planners and designers to ensure resilient design considering an uncertain climate future. This research used climate projections to drive high-resolution hydrology and flood models to evaluate social, economic, and infrastructure resilience for the Snohomish Watershed, WA, U.S.A. The proposed model chain has been calibrated and validated. Based on the established model chain, the peaks of precipitation and streamflows were found to shift from spring and summer to earlier winter season. The nonstationarity of peak discharges was discovered with more frequent and severe flood risks projected. The peak discharges were also projected to decrease for a certain period in the near future, which might be due to the reduced rain-on-snow events. This research was expected to provide a clear method for the incorporation of climate science in flood resilience analysis and to also provide actionable information relative to the frequency and intensity of future precipitation events.

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Section: Frequency Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrated Modeling Approach for the Development of Climate-Informed, Actionable Information

Judi¹,

Rakowski²,

Waichler³

et al. 2018

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…There are significant uncertainties in developing future realizations of flood risk with contributions from multiple aspects of the multi-scale, multi-model process [7,[35][36][37][38][39][40]. For example, while climate models generally do well at representing decadal variability, and to some extent monthly variability, representation of annual extremes is challenging [41][42][43][44]. The inability to capture extremes in the meteorological variables translates to an inability to capture extremes in runoff and subsequently an underestimation in statistical distributions of annual extreme events.…”

Section: Frequency Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrated Modeling Approach for the Development of Climate-Informed, Actionable Information

Judi

Rakowski

Waichler

et al. 2018

Water

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Flooding is a prevalent natural disaster with both short and long-term social, economic, and infrastructure impacts. Changes in intensity and frequency of precipitation (including rain, snow, and rain-on-snow) events create challenges for the planning and management of resilient infrastructure and communities. While there is general acknowledgment that new infrastructure design should account for future climate change, no clear methods or actionable information are available to community planners and designers to ensure resilient designs considering an uncertain climate future. This research demonstrates an approach for an integrated, multi-model, and multi-scale simulation to evaluate future flood impacts. This research used regional climate projections to drive high-resolution hydrology and flood models to evaluate social, economic, and infrastructure resilience for the Snohomish Watershed, WA, USA. Using the proposed integrated modeling approach, the peaks of precipitation and streamflows were found to shift from spring and summer to the earlier winter season. Moreover, clear non-stationarities in future flood risk were discovered under various climate scenarios. This research provides a clear approach for the incorporation of climate science in flood resilience analysis and to also provides actionable information relative to the frequency and intensity of future precipitation events.

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“…Para um eficaz planejamento de uso do solo e da água de qualquer região, é imprescindível dispor de informações acerca das variáveis climáticas. Nesse contexto, as chuvas intensas são fundamentais para análises hidroambientais, como mudanças climáticas e inundações (Lu et al, 2015); secas (Araújo & Bronstert, 2016); transporte de sedimentos e poluentes, capacidade de autodepuração dos corpos hídricos e dimensionamento de obras hídricas. Sobretudo na região semiárida do Nordeste brasileiro, que sofre com problemas de escassez hídrica em cerca de dois terços do ano, pouca profundidade e salinidade dos solos e sazonalidade do regime de chuvas (Araújo, 2012;Andrade et al, 2016;Costa & Silva, 2017).…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

Comportamento de chuvas intensas para bacia em região semiárida de Caatinga preservada

Rodrigues

Araújo

2019

Agraria

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RESUMO: Conhecer o comportamento das chuvas intensas é fundamental para planejamento de bacias hidrográficas, contudo demanda robustos bancos de dados pluviográficos, ainda escassos na região semiárida brasileira. O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar as curvas intensidade-duração-frequência (IDF) na Bacia Experimental de Aiuaba, Ceará. Com base em medições a cada 5min durante 16 anos (2003 a 2018) foram geradas curvas IDF para os períodos de 5min, 30min, 1h, 2h, 3h, 6h, 12h, 18h e 24h e calibrados os parâmetros da equação de Otto Pfafstetter para as curvas IDF da referida bacia. Da investigação pôde-se concluir que: as curvas IDF (inéditas para a região dos Inhamuns, CE) são compatíveis com os de outros estudos em regiões semiáridas e indicaram ser uma propriedade macrorregional; a erosividade indicou um valor máximo para chuvas de duração igual a 3 horas, sendo esse um efeito combinado de alta intensidade e alta energia cinética. Esta conclusão demanda um estudo mais aprofundado, ratificando a necessidade de modelos hidrológicos capazes de identificar de maneira mais precisa variações sub-diárias dos processos hidrológicos.

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An integrated statistical and data-driven framework for supporting flood risk analysis under climate change

Cited by 34 publications

References 63 publications

Integrated Modeling Approach for the Development of Climate-Informed, Actionable Information

Integrated Modeling Approach for the Development of Climate-Informed, Actionable Information

Integrated Modeling Approach for the Development of Climate-Informed, Actionable Information

Comportamento de chuvas intensas para bacia em região semiárida de Caatinga preservada

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