An integrated three-layered foresight framework

Abstract

Purpose The paper aims to present an integrated foresight framework and method to support decision-makers who are confronted with today’s complex and rapidly changing world. The method aims at reducing the degree of uncertainty by addressing the inertia or duration of unfolding trends and by placing individual trends in a broader context. Design/methodology/approach The paper presents a three-layered framework and method for assessing megatrends based on their inertia or duration. It suggests that if long-term trends and key future uncertainties are studied in conjunction at a meta-level and placed in a broader multi-layered framework of trends, it can result in new insights. Findings The application of the proposed foresight method helps to systematically place a wide range of unrelated trends and key uncertainties in the context of a broader framework of trends, thereby improving the ability to understand the inertia, direction and mutual interaction of these trends. Research limitations/implications The elaboration of identified trends and key uncertainties is partly case-specific and subject to interpretation. It is aimed at illustrating the potential use of the framework. Practical implications The paper presents a new approach that may, by itself or in combination with existing foresight methods, offer new means for anticipating future developments. Social implications The use of the proposed framework has potential to provide better insight in the complexity of today’s rapid-changing world and the major transitions taking place. It aims to result in sharper foresight by reducing epistemic uncertainty for decision-makers. Originality/value The paper demonstrates how megatrends, Kondratieff waves and century-long trends can be placed in an integrated framework and analysed in conjunction.

The global economy in technological transformation conditions: A review of modern trends

“…The authors employ empirical observations, theoretical explanations within literature reviews, and statistical analysis, as well as the Level-3 uncertainty as described by Walker et al (2010). They then integrate the three-layered foresight framework described by Dorsser and Taneja (2020) to propose six trends.…”

“…International conflicts have aggravated uncertainty in the global economy and financial markets. The nature of uncertainty and instability has been investigated in various existing studies and cannot be understood without further analysis of new trends in the global economy (Batt, 2018;Dorsser & Taneja, 2020;Matyushok & Krasavina, 2016a, 2016bWalker et al, 2010). The U.S. makes every effort to modernize a number of macroeconomic systems after the Second World War.…”

Framework for Dealing with Uncertainty in the Port Planning Process

“…A port SWOT analysis is carried out to identify the opportunities and vulnerabilities. SWOT analysis is a straightforward and commonly used method to recognize the capability and inability of a system (e.g., (Van Dorsser and Taneja 2020)). The port SWOT analysis is first developed by desk research and literature review and then improved by a group of experts with knowledge about port planning and development.…”

Applying blended foresight methods for revealing incentives and future strategies of key national innovation system players

“…Recent trends in foresight studies include more emphasis on stakeholder mapping and engagement (Saritas, 2013;Miles et al, 2017), deeper integration into the decision-making process (Gheorghiu et al, 2016;Pombo-Juárez, 2017;Minkkinen et al, 2019;Wang & Li, 2019;Wright et al, 2020;Robinson et al, 2021), increasing future literacy as a capability (Miller et al, 2018), and using a systemic approach to its organisation and conducting (Munigala et al, 2018;Van Dorsser & Taneja, 2020). These make a realistic idea of applying foresight methods for revealing incentives and future strategies of key NIS players.…”