Policymakers need to make policies for unknown and uncertain futures. Researchers in the futures field have a great deal to contribute to the policymaking process. But, futures research is often neglected as an element of policymaking. The aim of this paper is to improve the link between futures research and policymaking. More specifically, as Policy Analysis has a strong link with policymaking, this paper explores the possibility of linking Policy Analysis to the futures field through the use of an uncertainty typology applied in Policy Analysis. The typology can be used to structure the various forward-looking disciplines (or subfields) of the futures field according to the level of uncertainty that they address. This linkage can add significantly to the use of futures research in policymaking.

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Purpose The paper aims to present an integrated foresight framework and method to support decision-makers who are confronted with today’s complex and rapidly changing world. The method aims at reducing the degree of uncertainty by addressing the inertia or duration of unfolding trends and by placing individual trends in a broader context. Design/methodology/approach The paper presents a three-layered framework and method for assessing megatrends based on their inertia or duration. It suggests that if long-term trends and key future uncertainties are studied in conjunction at a meta-level and placed in a broader multi-layered framework of trends, it can result in new insights. Findings The application of the proposed foresight method helps to systematically place a wide range of unrelated trends and key uncertainties in the context of a broader framework of trends, thereby improving the ability to understand the inertia, direction and mutual interaction of these trends. Research limitations/implications The elaboration of identified trends and key uncertainties is partly case-specific and subject to interpretation. It is aimed at illustrating the potential use of the framework. Practical implications The paper presents a new approach that may, by itself or in combination with existing foresight methods, offer new means for anticipating future developments. Social implications The use of the proposed framework has potential to provide better insight in the complexity of today’s rapid-changing world and the major transitions taking place. It aims to result in sharper foresight by reducing epistemic uncertainty for decision-makers. Originality/value The paper demonstrates how megatrends, Kondratieff waves and century-long trends can be placed in an integrated framework and analysed in conjunction.

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Transport time and cost are decisive factors for shippers when they choose a mode for their transport. For inland waterway transport in particular, these aspects are more uncertain and less easy to generalize than for road and rail. This is due to the highly variable waterway conditions on free-flowing rivers and due to the large variety of inland ships. Today´s transport models, however, do not take these factors into account. This paper shows that dynamic fairway conditions, the ship’s amount of propulsion power, and the captain’s behaviour have a substantial impact on the attainable speed and fuel consumption of inland ships. This in turn has a significant impact on attainable sailing schedules and transportation cost, as we demonstrate through a case study for ships sailing on the Rhine-Danube corridor. We, therefore, conclude that there is a clear potential to improve the representation of inland waterway transport in freight models by modelling the effects of actual ship characteristics and waterway conditions at the micro-level.